News from the quiet Revolution

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Having adopted the role of historian to the phenomenon of the BNP's Quiet Revolution, a concept much trumpeted by that noted naturalist and angler, Mr Simon Derby, it is perhaps time to offer a further update.

As the excitement of May 1st, and Mr Richard Barnbrook's magnificent triumph in securing a seat on the largely irrelevant GLA (by a margin of a few decimal points), recedes let us consider the BNP's performance across a broader canvas. After all, the whole basis of the Quiet Revolution is:

a) that the BNP is fielding more and more candidates, across a wider geographical and social spectrum;

b) that their electoral support is growing.

So what happened in the rest of May? Well, there were only six local authority by-elections, four of them in Somerset! No seats changed hands - there were four Conservative Holds, and two Lib Dem. The BNP fielded candidates twice, and there was one Green. Oddly, there were no independent candidates.

In a Chard ward of South Somerset District Council a BNP candidate secured 17.2%; the Lib Dem held the seat, with the Conservatives a close(ish) second. A disturbingly high percentage, but would it have been significantly lower had there been a wider range of candidates? In particular one wonders what impact the lack of a Labour candidate had on this contest.

The other BNP candidate was for a Medway Unitary Authority vacancy, in the overcrowded "multiculti" south east of England. They polled just 6.8%. A particularly poor result, especially given the withdrawal of UKIP (who polled over 9% last time) and an Independent (over 6%).

Across all six by-elections 9957 votes were cast; the BNP gleaned just 411 of them (4.1%). And no, I don't think that translates to 12.3% if they'd fought all six seats!

But if May was poor, the prospects for June look worse. On the first two Thursdays of June there are fifteen scheduled by-elections (for a total of twenty vacancies). The nominations by party are as follows:

Conservative 17 Liberal Democrat 17 Labour 17 Independents 7 Green 3 BNP 3 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Left List 1 (there is also one "no description" candidate).

What is also interesting is the geographical spread of the BNP candidates, as all three are standing in Cumbria (one in Cockermouth - please form an orderly queue for jokes - and two in the Upperby Ward of Carlisle). So no BNP candidates in such areas as Oxfordshire, Gloucestershire, Nottinghamshire, Shropshire or Sussex. And no BNP candidates in Waltham Forest or Harlow byelections.

British National Party? Or Cumbria Party?

Oh, and no candidates in the Welsh byelections, in neither Newport nor Flintshire (home of Excalibur marketing unless I'm mistaken?) - not very good for a party led by a resident of Wales?

Signs that things are not too jolly in Chez BNP as things stand. Over the five week period just 5 candidates for 26 vacancies plus - of course - the failure to field a candidate in the Crewe & Nantwich parliamentary byelection.

And all this just as the 2007 accounts fall due for publication. Wonder what they will reveal?