Solidly Conservative Tamworth is a highly desirable place to live. An area with which we are familiar, this south Staffordshire town sits hard on the Warwickshire border (which once bisected it), and much of its wealth and growth was generated by coal mining.The mines of south Staffs and north Warwickshire now gone, the character of the place has changed fundamentally in the last decade or so, a change reflected in the political make-up of the town.
Once a solidly working-class Labour-voting town, the disappearance of the pits and the contraction of industry made Tamworth attractive to people living in the nearby West Midlands conurbation, who have decamped there in large numbers, making Tamworth something of a dormitary for Birmingham and its industrial suburbs. There is almost certainly an element of "white flight" to add in to the equation.
In 1998 Tamworth Borough Council was controlled by 28 Labour councillors, with just two others (one Conservative and one Independent) forming the opposition. By 2000 there had been a dramatic change - Labour still controlled the council with only two votes, but were reduced to 16 seats, with the Conservatives on 13 and the Independents retaining one. In 2002 boundary changes saw a revival for Labour, which retained council control with 22 seats against the Conservatives' 8 - but the relentless effects of demographic changes delayed by the boundary re-drawings were making themselves felt. In 2004 the Tories took control of the council (Con 16, Lab 13, Ind 1). In 2006 the Labour Party's decline continued apace - Con 22, Lab 8, Ind 1, and in 2007 they lost another two seats (Con 23, Lab 5, Ind 2).
Of course, Labour's catastrophic fall from grace in Tamworth cannot be wholly attributed to population movement. There are, as always, local factors, and we should take account of the failure of many Labour voters to identify with the "New Labour" project in what is an "Old Labour" area. We might also note the desultory efforts of the Liberal Democrats, who in May contested only four out of Tamworth's ten wards, coming last in each, their participation having little effect on the outcome of the Conservative/Labour battles fought across the town.
Tamworth being home to an insignificant number of ethnic minorities, the town has no history of racial tension, and was long barren ground for right-wing extremist parties. Even in the heady days of the 1970's the National Front never managed to raise more than a tiny, short-lived and completely ineffective group. The BNP presence is also tiny, but demographic and political changes there have been, and these produced a surprise result in the May local elections when the BNP's sole runner achieved a 25.14% vote share in Stoneydelph ward.
What makes that result interesting is the source of the BNP vote. In May 2006 the Stoneydelph result was (percentage vote share in brackets):
Con 827 (56.68)
Lab 632 (43.32)
Total 1459
In May 2007, with the intervention of a BNP candidate, the result came out as:
Con 606 (38.57)
Lab 570 (36.28)
BNP 395 (25.14)
Total 1571
We can see immediately that the big losers to the BNP were the sitting Conservatives, 18% of their vote apparently switching to the BNP - which, we believe, did not fight a full campaign. The implications are readily obvious - had the Liberal Democrats intervened they could hardly but help to further diminish the Tory and Labour vote share to the benefit of the BNP, and had the BNP engaged in a full canvass they may well have put themselves within spitting distance of a win.
Heartened by this missed opportunity in Tamworth Stoneydelph the party has jumped at the chance to contest a by-election in Conservative Castle ward, where its candidate is Lynne Smith (pictured), who contested Stoneydelph in May.
A businesswoman, 52 year-old Smith is - on the surface - a paragon of respectability, more Tory party material than BNP. Her campaign is typical of that the BNP has fought in so many by-elections of late, being a direct appeal to the sensibilites of Middle England, with (as far as we have seen) little or no advertising of the BNP's core policies on race and immigration - a large and telling ommission, not exactly reeking of forthright honesty..
This time the BNP has campaigned full bore, deputy-leader Simon Darby and Nuneaton serial candidate Alwyn Deacon getting involved, which is a good indication that the party has expectations in Castle ward - though, perhaps wisely, nobody is saying what they are.
However, we believe that such is the effort expended by the BNP that their minimum expectation cannot, in all seriousness, be for less than a 20% vote share and the consignment of the Liberal Democrat to fourth place.
The May 2007 result in Castle ward was:
Con 917 (47.61)
Lab 736 (38.21)
Lib 273 (14.17)
Total 1926
November 8th by-election result:
Lab 619 (40.32)
Con 613 (39.93)
BNP 208 (13.55)
Lib 95 (6.18)
Total 1535
Analysis: A greatly-reduced turnout saw a disappointing (for them) result for the BNP, while Labour somewhat surprisingly held on to its vote and grabbed the seat more or less by default, winning by a mere six votes after a recount. Once again it appeared to be the Tory vote that was directly affected by the BNP standing, with the residue of their lost votes and the Lib Dems disastrous showing possibly accountable by the massive drop in the number of voters who were willing to turn up at the polling station. How much of this was thanks to the appalling weather and how much to voter apathy/disillusion/disinterest is debatable.
According to the ever-sycophantic Green Arrow, the BNP 'pulled out all the stoppers and knocked their knuckles raw', which ties in with Denise's statement above that they had campaigned hard and clearly expected to do well. The fact that they managed to take over 25% in Stoneydelph would have encouraged them to think that 20-25% was a realistic possibility in this by-election but again we see the BNP vote staying relatively low even when the political climate in the country is perceivably favourable to the party, and we are treated to yet another by-election (how many is that now?) where the BNP have worked hard and achieved little.
The BNP's results over the whole country last May and in every by-election since have, despite all the hard work on the ground, produced nothing new for the party, and it's fair to ask ourselves if it has hit its peak or if it still has a way to go. One thing is for sure - the drama of the Barking and Dagenham result is starting to look very old and the small success of a by-election gain keeps eluding the party. Long may it continue.
Posted by Denise G and Antifascist
