Big news from Norwich - ideas win elections

One should not over-elaborate the analysis of elections. The central question is always the same. Who won? This is certainly true of the Norwich North by-election, where Chloe Smith turned Dr Ian Gibson's Labour majority of 5,459 in 2005's General Election into a Conservative majority of 7,348.

Allowing for all the special circumstances, that is probably a good enough result to produce a Conservative victory next year, both nationally and in Norwich North. That is what matters; it is natural for the Conservatives to be delighted with last Thursday's result as well as relieved. Miss Smith is more than entitled to enjoy her triumph.

There are, however, some interesting undercurrents revealed in the Norwich North results. First, there is one piece of excellent news, which I had not totally expected. After its relatively successful result in the European Elections, the British National Party (BNP) thought it a good idea to put up a candidate in Norwich North. It was mistaken. The BNP was beaten into seventh place with just 941 votes.

That does not mean the BNP may not become a future threat, but it does show it has limited appeal outside a few deprived areas. Seventh place in a by-election is a joke position for a group claiming to be a national party.

The result put the Conservatives in first place, Labour second, the Liberal Democrats third, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) fourth and the Greens fifth.

The result is disastrously bad for Labour. Undoubtedly, Labour voters resented the brutal dismissal of Dr Gibson, a popular and independent-minded local MP. The Labour vote fell by 70 per cent from 21,097 in 2005 to 6,243 in 2009. The opinion polls have been reporting that Labour support in the country has fallen from 36 per cent at the last General Election to a figure in the mid-20s now. Norwich has confirmed the opinion polls reflect reality.

The Conservatives won the seat largely because Labour has become so unpopular. In 2005, the Tories came second in the Norwich seat with 15,638 votes; in last week's by-election they came comfortably first with 13,591. The Tories would have been able to win the seat simply by retaining the support of their past voters, though they did well to increase their share of the votes.

The Lib Dems also had a lower vote in 2009 than they had had in 2005. At the by-election they came third, but they had only 4,803 votes to the 7,616 they had won in 2005. Although Labour did by far the worst, all three traditional parties won fewer votes than they had won at the last General Election.

The three leading parties, taken together, saw their vote fall from 44,300 in 2005 to 26,700 in 2009. Resentment over parliamentary expenses may have partly caused the decline, but an analysis of the vote for the new parties suggests there is more to it than that.

Two of the new parties came just below the three traditional parties in the ranking order. Both had performed reasonably well in the European Elections. UKIP increased its 2005 vote from 1,122 to 4,068 at the by-election. That put it in fourth place. Indeed, UKIP was fewer than 1,000 votes behind the Lib Dems. The Greens increased their General Election vote of 1,252 to 3,350.

Both parties are perceived by the public as single-issue parties. Nevertheless, both were able to increase their votes at a by-election in which the three major parties were unable to do so. Labour's vote was catastrophically lower. Obviously, the European and Green issues are important to voters.

Last week, Labour lost some 15,000 votes, votes that Dr Gibson had won in 2005. No doubt many of these voters simply abstained, but the two new parties gained 5,000 voters.

If Britain had adopted electoral reform, which is the long-standing policy of the Lib Dems, these new parties, including the BNP, would have an opportunity to grow to the point at which they would become natural coalition partners. The parties that are the biggest threat to the established parties would also make the most attractive coalition parties.

The Lib Dems would be attractive coalition partners for Labour, as they have been in Scotland; UKIP might be a potential coalition partner for the Tories, though that would be resisted. The Greens are a threat to the Lib Dems, but could also be their partners. As we do not have proportional representation, this change-your-partners dance will not take place - yet.

Nevertheless, British politics will increasingly be influenced by the single-issue parties. It is no longer reasonable to think UKIP or the Greens are merely crankish parties, bound to fade away. The opinion polls suggest both are in the interesting situation of being single-issue parties whose issues have strong public appeal. Most voters are certainly more conscious of Green issues than they used to be a generation ago; most voters have also become increasingly critical of the European Union and the Lisbon Treaty.

The Lib Dems in the House of Lords voted with the Government against the Lisbon referendum, which the country had been promised. Obviously, Eurosceptics will hesitate before they vote Lib Dem. Support for Green issues crosses the boundaries of other parties - the Tories can claim to have been a Green party for a long time in that they were always the countryside party.

I would not particularly welcome coalitions of conflicting ideas - which electoral reform has created in Scotland - into Westminster. But I do welcome the mixture of ideas which is fermenting in our politics. The Norwich North result supports the forecast that Labour is on the way out and the Tories are on the way in.

Yet it also supports the view that the politics of ideas, which we knew in the Forties, may be coming back. It was the ideas-based parties, UKIP and the Greens, which were the only ones to increase their votes in the Norwich North by-election.

Mail Online

Woeful West Walloped

Norwich North voters gave a two fingered salute to the BNP and its bogus vicar in yesterday's hard fought by-election, rewarding the racist party with a deposit-losing 2.7% of the vote - putting the "reverend" Robert West in seventh place, behind Craig Murray, the "Honest Man" candidate.

The full result from the Press Association:

Chloe Smith (C) 13,591 (39.54%, +6.29%)
Chris Ostrowski (Lab) 6,243 (18.16%, -26.70%)
April Pond (LD) 4,803 (13.97%, -2.22%)
Glenn Tingle (UKIP) 4,068 (11.83%, +9.45%)
Rupert Read (Green) 3,350 (9.74%, +7.08%)
Craig Murray (Honest) 953 (2.77%)
Robert West (BNP) 941 (2.74%)
Bill Holden (Ind) 166 (0.48%, -0.17%)
Howling Laud (Loony) 144 (0.42%)
Anne Fryatt (NOTA) 59 (0.17%)
Thomas Burridge (Libertarian) 36 (0.10%)
Peter Baggs (Ind) 23 (0.07%)

C maj 7,348 (21.37%)
16.49% swing Lab to C
Electorate 75,124; Turnout 34,377 (45.76%, -15.33%)

2005: Lab maj 5,459 (11.61%) - Turnout 47,033 (61.09%)
Gibson (Lab) 21,097 (44.86%); Tumbridge (C) 15,638 (33.25%); Whitmore (LD) 7,616 (16.19%); Holmes (Green) 1,252 (2.66%); Youles (UKIP) 1,122 (2.39%); Holden (Ind) 308 (0.65%)

The BNP realised that it was in for a drubbing in Norwich North some time ago, and though it announced its intention to stand the dodgy West in a blaze of hype that saw excitable BNP members predict their first MP, it quickly became obvious the party's campaign was firmly stuck in some very deep mud.

The party attempted to stir disharmony in the constituency by falsely claiming that African immigrants were being housed ahead of locals in Norwich, and West became a figure of ridicule as doubts about his status as a "reverend" surfaced and dogged him throughout the campaign.

Realising the party was on a hiding to nothing the BNP stopped mentioning the by-election, and national support for West was not forthcoming. Planned visits to Norwich by BNP Euro MEPs Nick Griffin and Andrew Brons were shelved so as not to taint the pair with the impending disaster, and the puny Norfolk BNP organisation was left to sink or swim on its own.

It sank - and how!

The BNP's dismal Norwich North result falls into a clear pattern that has emerged since the heat of the Parliamentary expenses scandal has abated. In three significant local by-elections the racist party has seen its share of the vote tumble.

Last week in Nuneaton Arbury and Stockingford (Warwickshire County Council) - a division the BNP thought it could win - their vote share crashed by 11% as two thirds of those who had voted for the racist party in June deserted them.

Yesterday, in Reddish North (Stockport), the BNP vote share fell by 6.6% as more than half their votes evaporated - bad news for Nick Griffin, as Stockport falls within his North West Euro-region constituency. And in Dormanstown (Redcar-Cleveland) the BNP again managed to lose more than half its votes, its share again down by 6%.

As we saw in June, despite Nick Griffin's claim that the expenses scandal and disquiet at the scale of immigration amounted to a "perfect storm" for the BNP, the party managed to increase its vote by only 1.6%, and only disgusted stay-at-home Labour voters allowed him and Andrew Brons to win their Euro seats.

Griffin's lucky success was the only thing disguising what was a disastrous election for the BNP given the circumstances in which it took place. In fact it's pretty obvious that had the expenses scandal not broken when it did then the BNP vote would have fallen, with the happy result that Griffin's alleged electoral Midas Touch would have been exposed for the self-serving fiction it always was, and that with nothing to show for all the money, time and effort expended by the BNP in June the party would now be looking at its all too fallible leader in a very different light.

The Norwich North result shows that the BNP will never achieve power in the only place that matters - Westminster - and their disastrous vote losses in recent local by-elections give a true picture of the situation viz-a-viz the electorate and the BNP. Whichever way the BNP wants to look at it that picture is one of utter electoral failure.

Finally, we should like to mention the tireless anti-fascist campaigners of HOPE not hate and other organisations, and thank them for their unstinting efforts in getting out the truth of Robert West and the BNP in Norwich North. And to our list of people to thank we'd like to add Nick Griffin MEP, for providing us with the sitting duck candidate that was the ropey "reverend" Robert West. We couldn't have chosen better ourselves.

Report by Atreus (in his living room) and Denise Garside (by email from Berchtesgaden!)

Thanks to Atreus + Denise from Norfolk Unity

Norfolk clergy shun BNP candidate

God-botherer, fraud and all-round fruitloop, His Holiness Saint Robert West

Leading Norfolk clergymen are calling on voters in Norwich North to shun the British National Party at Thursday's by-election. In a statement, the six top churchmen repeated concerns they expressed before last month's European and county council elections - and distanced themselves from BNP candidate Robert West.

“It is important for us to do so since the British National Party candidate styles himself as 'Revd' and is often to be seen dressed as a clergyman,” they said. “He belongs to no known denomination and voters should not be misled by his adoption of clerical dress. The policies he promotes are not shared by any of the Churches we serve and are contrary to the teaching of the New Testament. There we read that in Christ 'there is neither Jew nor Greek, neither slave nor free, neither male nor female' (Galatians 3.28). Christians in Norfolk and Norwich have had a long tradition of welcoming the stranger. We pray that this generous instinct may continue to be celebrated here.”

The statement is signed by the Rt Revd Graham James, Bishop of Norwich (Church of England); the Rt Revd Michael Evans, Bishop of East Anglia (Roman Catholic); the Revd Graham Thompson, East Anglia District (Methodist Church); the Revd Richard Lewis, regional minister, Norfolk (Baptist Union); the Revd Paul Whittle, moderator, Eastern Province (United Reformed Church); and John Myhill (Society of Friends).

Eastern Daily Press

Norwich North by-election

The BNP's candidate, The Holy Hypocrite



The Norwich North by-election has been called for Thursday July 23rd. The known candidates so far are:

Thomas BURRIDGE (Libertarian)
Bill HOLDEN (Independent)
Alan HOPE (Official Monster Raving Loony)
Craig MURRAY (Independent)
Chris OSTROWSKI (Labour)
April POND (Liberal Democrat)
Rupert READ (Green)
Chloe SMITH (Conservative)
Glenn TINGLE (UK Independence)
Robert WEST (BNP)

The BNP's strange decision to nominate the slippery "Reverend" West has been something of a gift to Norfolk anti-fascists. His refusal to come clean regarding the validity of his alleged ordination is already being discussed in the local press, and we expect the matter to be persued by television journalists if the BNP allows their candidate to go before the cameras.

In Norwich North the BNP will be looking to save its deposit. Anything else would be a bonus, bolstering the party's premature claim to have broken into the mainstream.

The only occasion on which the BNP tested the electoral waters in the area was in the June County Council elections, when local organiser Julia Howman stood in Sprowston, coming last but with 6.67% of the vote (UKIP polled 19.11%). Anti-fascist campaigners will be attempting to keep the BNP's vote below the 5% required to save its deposit.

Questions have been raised concerning the political past of UKIP candidate Glenn Tingle. Rumours have been planted (by BNP members we must stress) that Tingle was once a National Front activist in Norwich. Though UKIP supporters have denied the rumour, to date we have yet to hear Mr Tingle make a direct refutation. Verifiable information on the truth of the rumour is welcomed, but we do not intend to repeat anything not backed by concrete fact.

The campaign against the BNP in Norwich North is being organised by Norfolk HOPE not hate and Norwich Trades Council. If you can help out on the ground please contact the campaign via the main HOPE not hate website, the Norwich Trade Council website, or the Norfolk HOPE not hate blog. Other local websites that will be covering the by-election and supporting the anti-fascist campaign are Norfolk Unity and Great Yarmouth HOPE not hate.

Doubts over BNP man's title claims

There was confusion last night over whether Norwich North's British National Party (BNP) candidate has the credentials to call himself “reverend”.

The Rev Robert West is at the centre of a row over his ministerial moniker, which he claimed was genuine - even though he admitted he had no current connection to any Christian denomination.

When questioned, Mr West, who lives in Holbeach in Lincolnshire, said: “It's been dealt with once and I don't have to justify myself.”

He said he had explained himself and shown his ordination certificate on a TV show in recent months, and said he had been advised “not to go through it all again”.

He said he had been “ordained as an elder” of the Apostolic Church of Wales some years ago. He claimed the word “elder” in the New Testament came from a Greek word meaning “priest”.

Mr West, who will be bidding to win the vacant Norwich North seat once the by-election date has been announced, said: “Ordination means recognition. It's simply recognition of what you are. It recognises your gifts.”

Meanwhile, UKIP leader Nigel Farrage was in Norwich yesterday outlining how his party planned to reach out to traditional Labour voters and Tories disenchanted with David Cameron's Conservative Party.

Norwich Evening News

BNP to stand in by-election

The controversial British National Party has confirmed that one of its members will bid to become the next Norwich North MP.

Robert West, founder of the Christian Council of Britain and who describes himself as a “reverend” on the BNP website, will officially stand to replace Ian Gibson.

He was the lead candidate for the BNP, which has been condemned for its extreme views, in the East Midlands but did not gain enough votes to win a seat in the European Parliament last month.

Today, MPs and councillors hit out at the party and said their extremism was not welcome.

North Norfolk MP Norman Lamb said: “I want voters to reject extremism and if anyone stands for the BNP they should be rejected. They are a racist party and are preying on vulnerable people.

“I believe in treating people equally and this party does not share this view.”

Tim East, a South Norfolk councillor for Costessey, said: “Before anyone has a chance of being elected we need to know their full background. There should be complete transparency into people's pasts before the public can make a valued judgement.”

Mr West caused controversy on BBC1 in February when he said the answer to the recession was for women to “work at home” and he is against all forms of multi-culturalism.

And the 53-year-old, who lives near Spalding in south Lincolnshire, said today: “We are taking a strong anti-immigration line. And we are against the issue of sovereignty to the European community. I believe multi-culturalism is unnecessary and evil.

“I want the people of Norwich to follow this line and realise we have not been tough enough on immigration. I do not want anywhere in this country turning into the Middle East.

“This is Britain and I will fight to keep it that way.”

Mr West said although he does not live in the city he believes he can represent people here because he comes from a “rural community” which is similar to Norfolk and he has lectured for the University of East Anglia (UEA).

He admitted to possessing old fashioned views but said he wants to tell people in Norwich the truth about what he represents and “not a pack of lies”.

He said he believes the market has been flooded with women working and it would be “better if they stayed at home”.

“The domestic sphere is a natural place for a woman to be,” he said. “I honestly think it is woman's right to be at home. Women should get married and their first priority should be the home.

“Recently the home has been abandoned and this modern way does not work. I think many women agree with this, even though they are working themselves.

“This is my view and I hope to get the people of Norwich to listen to this.”

Mr West is one of several candidates poised to try and take the Norwich North seat, which belonged to Ian Gibson before he was forced to step down in the face of the Westminster expenses scandal.

Dr Gibson quit after he was deselected by the Labour Party for claiming for a flat which his daughter and her boyfriend lived in rent free before he sold it to them at a reduced rate.

The BNP failed to win seven Norfolk seats in the county council elections earlier this month, including Sprowston.

Norwich Evening News