Racists rejected in Redwell West

Wellingborough is a pretty average sort of town. Sitting in the heart of Northamptonshire, it is the usual small-town mix of light industry and suburban housing, and has a population of over 50,000, of which 10% are believed to belong to the ethnic minorities (we have no figures for recent European immigration).

It's also one of those places where the Labour Party is in disastrous decline. Wellingborough Borough Council has a chamber of 36 seats representing 16 wards. In the 2003 local elections the then opposition Conservative Party gained 13 seats, to give them a majority of 18. In 2007 the Conservatives came away holding 30 seats, ousting the Labour group leader and his deputy into the bargain - a majority of 24.

Tonight we're interested in Wellingborough's Redwell West ward, where the BNP are fielding a first-time candidate. In May 2007 Redwell West voted as follows:

Con 836
Con 818
Lab 243
Lab 237

The two Conservatives were elected with 77.5% of the vote, but one of them, David Old, resigned in February - six weeks after moving to Canada. Old claimed that he had made his mind up about emigrating after becoming the victim of a mugging, but his tardiness in failing to resign promptly (before Christmas) has left a bad taste in the mouths of many local voters. It seems that Old had been talking about leaving the country for at least two years and put his house up for sale in June - shortly after winning re-election to the Redwell West seat. "We feel duped," one voter told the local press.

Nobody seriously expects the Conservatives to lose Redwell West tonight, but party activists usually prepare themselves to take a "punishment hit" when councillors resign in dubious circumstances - and there is the added element of a fuller field of candidates to take into account.

In addition to Labour, the Greens, Liberal Democrats, UKIP and the BNP are all contesting. The Labour vote is clearly vulnerable, as they have no realistic chance of taking the seat, and it is pretty certain that Green and Liberal Democrat votes will come from them. Both the BNP and UKIP are more than capable of eating into the Tory vote, which, from its May 2007 high of 77.5%, is overdue for a fall.

Wellingborough BC Redwell West ward result (percentages in brackets):

Con 665 (59.01)
BNP 177 (15.71)
Lab 169 (15.00)
L-D 40 (3.55)
UKIP 39 (3.46)
Grn 37 (3.28)

Total 1127

On a slightly increased turnout the Conservative vote fell by exactly 18.5% and Labour by exactly 7.5%.

The bald figures suggest that much of the BNP vote came from the Conservatives, and very little from Labour. A vague pattern does appear to be emerging of the BNP taking Tory votes in safe Conservative wards where either Labour or the Liberal Democrats have little or no chance of winning.

Even so, this being such a safe Tory seat voters had nothing to lose by taking a chance on the BNP - something they signally failed to do. We're becoming accustomed to seeing the BNP taking the neither-here-nor-there 15%-ish territory on first outings, but we have very rarely seen them sustain or improve on that figure in subsequent contests.

So, last week's nasty surprise in Havering behind them, it's as you were for the BNP as the voters of Redwell West turn the volume back down on the "quiet revolution".

It's unfortunate that I couldn't find anything more interesting to say about this particularly uninspiring by-election - so I'll leave you with a link to Wellingborough councillor Tony Sharp's blog, where you'll find the BNP's whinging Rob Walker pleading that whatever else the BNP might be, racist it isn't. Honest.