Another Thursday

This article was submitted by one of our readers, Iliacus. We welcome any contributions from our supporters (as long as those contributions conform to the law and are in reasonably good taste). Please send your articles to us via email.

There were eight by-elections on October 2nd, and once again they brought little cheer for the BNP's increasingly downhearted and empty-pocketed membership.

In Oswestry, Swale (Kent), Taunton and Leominster the electorate were happily spared the attentions of the BNP. In the Witham West ward of Braintree Council they had a lucky escape when the newest BNP celebrity candidate, "somebody whose late father used to be on the telly", decided not to fly their flag after all.

Their headline performance was in Bourne, Lincolnshire. This was a ward in which they probably entertained some hopes of a good performance for several reasons:

1. their Lincolnshire organisation seems (by their own pretty low standards!) to be a reasonably active and almost competent operation;
2. as a small market town, with a strong local civic tradition now subsumed into a larger district and even larger county authority, it might be expected to have a demographic that might be favourable (as seen in places like Melton Mowbray or Leek - which elected a BNP councillor this May);
3. when last contested (2005) it was a straight Tory-Labour fight, with only a moderate Conservative majority. This time there were seven candidates, and the prospect of even a modest share of the vote being enough for victory;
4. there was an energetic BNP campaign effort with three leaflets being delivered to most properties. The Conservatives aside, it is unlikely that any of the other parties saw this as a winnable seat, and their campaigns were probably limited.

But the BNP performance saw them gain just 13% of the vote (239 votes). The Conservatives held comfortably (760), with an Independent second (355). The BNP will make much of their having beaten (just) Labour and the Lib Dems (202 & 198), and of UKIP trailing in last with 41 votes - just 2.2%. But given the circumstances of the by-election this really wasn't a good result from their perspective.

Elsewhere they did even worse. In the Kirkleatham ward of Redcar & Cleveland Unitary Authority they took just 5.8% as the Lib Dems gained the seat from Labour with a huge swing. And in the West Ruislip ward of Hillingdon London Borough we saw the BNP and the National Front going head to head. The former took 4.3%, the latter 2.0%.

Another bad day at the office for the BNP.

There's one other point worth making. Turnouts in local by-elections can vary enormously, sometimes above 50% in keenly-contested bouts and dropping to around 10% on other occasions. Under such circumstances it can be instructive to calculate percentage share of the electorate in addition to percentage share of the vote. Applying this to this week's results (and combining the far-right vote in Ruislip) gives:

Bourne 2.73%
Kirkleatham 2.13%
Ruislip 2.03%

It seems to me (and further research may be worthwhile) that across much of the country there is a 2-3% share of the electorate which inclines to the far-right. This is in accord with such polling as manages to identify BNP support at all! And this "core vote" of far-right support will generally turn out if a BNP candidate is offered. If this is correct, and if the figures aren't skewed by the media/commentators "talking up" the BNP in 2009 in the way that UKIP was "talked up" in 2004, then there is a stark message for next year's Euro elections.

If the BNP's core vote is 3% of the electorate, and the turnout is 40% - they get 7.5% of the vote and MEPs are very unlikely.

But if the turnout is only 30% they get 10% - and a BNP MEP or two becomes a distinct possibility.

If the turnout falls to 25% - they get 12%...

A tale of two campaigns

Although the London Mayoral and Assembly elections are attracting the most political attention, contests are taking place across the country that will give a further indication of the potential strength of the British National Party for next year’s European elections.

The BNP’s own focus on London could adversely affect the party’s efforts in these council elections. Conversely, there is a danger that anti-fascists could devote so much of their resources and energy to London that the BNP is left to make substantial gains elsewhere.

There are 70 council wards which the BNP could win on a 10% swing or less. In addition, there are 10-15 wards where either the BNP did not field a candidate last year or no elections were held, where the BNP must fancy its chances.

But if pre-election activity (or inactivity as is more often the case) is anything to go by, many BNP branches are squandering yet another opportunity to make an electoral breakthrough in the party’s key areas.

Over the past few months Searchlight has reported on the BNP’s internal wranglings. Although the rebellion has petered out in most places its impact seems to have reduced the BNP’s readiness to contest its key target wards. This is certainly the situation in West Yorkshire, one of the BNP’s strongest areas nationally. Most branches sided with the rebels and while some, such as in Leeds, have returned to the fold, other groups, such as York, Hull and elements of Bradford, appear to be outside the BNP altogether and may well stand as independents against the party.

Most of the key personnel in Kirklees still sympathise with the expelled rebel leaders but have decided to stay within the party, at least until the May elections.

Although the rebellion has lost momentum across Yorkshire, the political infighting has left most local branches inactive in recent months and few have done anything like the amount of preparation that would be expected of an election winning operation.

The West Midlands has also enjoyed mixed fortunes. The BNP threat in Stoke-on-Trent remains very strong, and is growing in some areas, with the BNP putting out a localised version of the Londoner, but other areas are on the slide. This is certainly the case in Sandwell, once the party’s strongest area outside Barking and Dagenham. The resignation of Simon Smith, the local organiser, coupled with the humiliating exposé of councillor James Lloyd has led to morale collapsing and activity ceasing.

It is in the North West where the after effects of the rebellion have had greatest impact. Former BNP activists in Oldham, Tameside and Stockport appear to be about to stand as independents. Oldham is particularly interesting. The BNP appears to be struggling to find any local candidates after its former organiser, Martin Brierley, defected to the England First Party and his predecessor, Anita Corbett, decided to contest her Royton seat as an independent.

Other branches have also been severely affected by the party’s internal divisions. Blackburn and Manchester branches have all but collapsed and Wigan, though fielding candidates under the BNP banner, remains loyal to the rebellion.

Even in Burnley the BNP is not going into these elections in a positive manner. After recently losing a High Court case over a disputed election result last year, the BNP enters the campaign in a weaker position than for some years.

In Thurrock, Essex, where the BNP stood in every ward last year and averaged 24%, there has been little if any serious work done in recent months.

One of the few key areas, apart from Stoke-on-Trent, where the BNP has been active is Epping Forest. Here the BNP is vigorously defending three seats and hoping to get several people elected to Loughton Town Council.

Newly emerging risk authorities are Barnsley, Nuneaton & Bedworth and Wrexham, all of which have seen considerable BNP activity in recent months.
No complacency

The BNP appears not to have learnt the lessons of its electoral failure last year, when it did too little campaigning too late. While this is good news for anti-fascists it would be wrong to be complacent. Few of the conditions that have helped the BNP gain support have disappeared. Most of the BNP’s key target wards are held by Labour, which is losing support, if the opinion polls are to be believed.

The work by anti-fascists and the best placed political parties in the key wards has been mixed. Last year’s results followed a poorly targeted BNP campaign combined with increased effort by the main parties. This has continued in some areas but not in others.

The readiness of the main parties in key areas such as Dudley, Barnsley and Epping to take on the BNP is questionable. In some other areas complacency over last year’s results could endanger the gains made.

Over the next few weeks there will be a frenzy of activity across the country. Although the BNP will be directing activists to London, with two key weekends of action planned in the capital, it will also carry out considerably more work in its key target wards. Searchlight will be working with anti-fascists in all the key areas to hold activities, conduct telephone canvassing and election day turnout campaigns. It is vital that as many people as possible get involved.

The BNP’s fixation with London gives us an opportunity to reinforce the gains we made across the country last year. Conversely, if we focus too much on London then we risk squandering last year’s results and giving the BNP a perfect platform to launch its European election campaign.

Searchlight has produced a new range of anti-BNP material for use in the 2008 election campaign. See the magazine for details.

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