This article was submitted by one of our readers, Iliacus. We welcome any contributions from our supporters (as long as those contributions conform to the law and are in reasonably good taste). Please send your articles to us via email.
It's been some time since I offered up one of my by-election roundups - perhaps the election of those two berks in June [you know who I mean!] brassed me off. But here's my return - prompted by interesting developments as the summer has progressed, and particularly the pattern which seems to be developing.
The fact is that over the past few weeks the BNP's participation rate has been falling, and their performance has not so much stalled as fallen backwards. And the events of September 10th underline that trend. There were eight byelections; the BNP fielded candidates in four. [Tories and Lib Dems fought all eight; Labour 6; BNP 4; Greens 3; UKIP 2; Others 6]
Two were being fought for the first time - in Market Harborough they polled 11.1% against Tory and Lib Dem (there was no Labour candidate, despite their having taken around 25% last time). In Westoe (South Tyneside) they polled around 12%, finishing 4th out of 6.
In York (Heworth) they polled 6.7%, about six points down on last time (2007). It's difficult to be precise, because the 2007 election was for all three councillors and there will have been varied vote splitting. Suffice to say that in an area where they gained 507 votes two years ago they managed just 172 this time.
The key contest, however, was in the Drayton ward of Daventry Borough Council. In 2008 the result here had been:
Conservative 654
BNP 451
Labour 257
With 33% of the vote last time, and with three new candidates to split the anti-BNP vote (Lib Dem, Independent and Socialist Alliance), and the prospect of a much reduced turnout they must have had hopes of taking the seat. Well, at least the reduced turnout happened! The result though will have been a huge disappointment to the BNP:
Conservative 314
Labour 158
Lib Dem 138
BNP 133
Independent 129
Socialist Alliance 55
They fell from second to fourth, and their share of the vote collapsed to 14.3%. Dismal, dismal, dismal.
Back in March I reviewed BNP performance at that period. In 'new' seats they were averaging 21%, and in seats previously contested they averaged 17.2% (up 0.8 percentage points on the preceding elections). On September 10th they averaged around 11.6% in 'new seats', and in previously contested seats 10.5% (down from 22.9% - fall of over 12 points).
No room for complacency; the threat remains. But if I were in the echelons of the BNP's election strategy I'd be getting very, very worried!
Good.
Showing posts with label quiet revolution. Show all posts
Showing posts with label quiet revolution. Show all posts
September 14, 2009
September 30, 2008
BNP triumphs again (over one in 100 back them!)
This article was submitted by one of our readers, Iliacus. We welcome any contributions from our supporters (as long as those contributions conform to the law and are in reasonably good taste). Please send your articles to us via email.
There were eight by-elections on September 25th, and the BNP managed to contest...er, one of them, in the Hampstead Town ward of the London Borough of Camden. They came fifth...out of five. And they polled 29 votes (the winning Lib Dem got over 1200).
This represented 1.03056% of the vote; a truly dreadful result.
And in the other seven contests - in Chalfont St Giles, Plumstead, Stevenage, Minster (Kent), Sheerness, Alfriston (East Sussex) and Winchester - they failed to field a single candidate. Poor old Simon Darby. His "Quiet Revolution", his claimed breakthrough where the BNP is fielding more and more candidates, in increasingly varied areas, and with increasing support, is turning out to be a delusion. Like so much else in the world of far-right politics!
There were eight by-elections on September 25th, and the BNP managed to contest...er, one of them, in the Hampstead Town ward of the London Borough of Camden. They came fifth...out of five. And they polled 29 votes (the winning Lib Dem got over 1200).
This represented 1.03056% of the vote; a truly dreadful result.
And in the other seven contests - in Chalfont St Giles, Plumstead, Stevenage, Minster (Kent), Sheerness, Alfriston (East Sussex) and Winchester - they failed to field a single candidate. Poor old Simon Darby. His "Quiet Revolution", his claimed breakthrough where the BNP is fielding more and more candidates, in increasingly varied areas, and with increasing support, is turning out to be a delusion. Like so much else in the world of far-right politics!
Labels:
BNP,
far-right,
Iliacus,
quiet revolution,
Simon Darby
July 27, 2008
The delusional Mr Darby
This article was submitted by one of our readers, Iliacus. We welcome any contributions from our supporters (as long as those contributions conform to the law and are in reasonably good taste). Please send your articles to us via email.
Regular readers will know that I have taken up the role of ridiculing the phenomenon of the BNP's Quiet Revolution, a concept much trumpeted by that noted naturalist, angler (and BNP deputy leader), Mr Simon Darby, who seems to think that his party is becoming ever more successful in fielding candidates at council by-elections, and is steadily increasing its support.
The evidence - the BNP's failure to field candidates on a sustained basis, the weird antics of some of those nominated, and their extraordinary inability to actually win - points to Mr Darby being delusional.
If there was any doubt, the events of 24th/25th July certainly supports my contention.
On his own splendidly idiosyncratic (and idotic) blog Darby states that "judging from yesterday's by-elections we are establishing a base level of support of around 10-11% nationally across England".
So what actually happened in the by-elections of 24th July? Well, there were seven in total, and the BNP's vote shares?
Seven by-elections; one BNP candidate. In Boston (with one of the highest migrant worker influxes in the UK) they trailed way adrift of the pace, on just 10.5%. Elsewhere, even in areas like London, and the East & West Midlands they couldn't even find a candidate!
Quiet Revolution? I think the expression used by the Ricky Tomlinson character in the Royle Family might be appropriate.
And speaking of "quiet" Mr Darby, where are the accounts?
Regular readers will know that I have taken up the role of ridiculing the phenomenon of the BNP's Quiet Revolution, a concept much trumpeted by that noted naturalist, angler (and BNP deputy leader), Mr Simon Darby, who seems to think that his party is becoming ever more successful in fielding candidates at council by-elections, and is steadily increasing its support.
The evidence - the BNP's failure to field candidates on a sustained basis, the weird antics of some of those nominated, and their extraordinary inability to actually win - points to Mr Darby being delusional.
If there was any doubt, the events of 24th/25th July certainly supports my contention.
On his own splendidly idiosyncratic (and idotic) blog Darby states that "judging from yesterday's by-elections we are establishing a base level of support of around 10-11% nationally across England".
So what actually happened in the by-elections of 24th July? Well, there were seven in total, and the BNP's vote shares?
Seven by-elections; one BNP candidate. In Boston (with one of the highest migrant worker influxes in the UK) they trailed way adrift of the pace, on just 10.5%. Elsewhere, even in areas like London, and the East & West Midlands they couldn't even find a candidate!Quiet Revolution? I think the expression used by the Ricky Tomlinson character in the Royle Family might be appropriate.
And speaking of "quiet" Mr Darby, where are the accounts?
Labels:
BNP,
by-elections,
quiet revolution,
Simon Darby
June 04, 2008
News from the quiet Revolution
This article was submitted by one of our readers, Iliacus. We welcome any contributions from our supporters (as long as those contributions conform to the law and are in reasonably good taste). Please send your articles to us via email.
Having adopted the role of historian to the phenomenon of the BNP's Quiet Revolution, a concept much trumpeted by that noted naturalist and angler, Mr Simon Derby, it is perhaps time to offer a further update.
As the excitement of May 1st, and Mr Richard Barnbrook's magnificent triumph in securing a seat on the largely irrelevant GLA (by a margin of a few decimal points), recedes let us consider the BNP's performance across a broader canvas. After all, the whole basis of the Quiet Revolution is:
a) that the BNP is fielding more and more candidates, across a wider geographical and social spectrum;
b) that their electoral support is growing.
So what happened in the rest of May? Well, there were only six local authority by-elections, four of them in Somerset! No seats changed hands - there were four Conservative Holds, and two Lib Dem. The BNP fielded candidates twice, and there was one Green. Oddly, there were no independent candidates.
In a Chard ward of South Somerset District Council a BNP candidate secured 17.2%; the Lib Dem held the seat, with the Conservatives a close(ish) second. A disturbingly high percentage, but would it have been significantly lower had there been a wider range of candidates? In particular one wonders what impact the lack of a Labour candidate had on this contest.
The other BNP candidate was for a Medway Unitary Authority vacancy, in the overcrowded "multiculti" south east of England. They polled just 6.8%. A particularly poor result, especially given the withdrawal of UKIP (who polled over 9% last time) and an Independent (over 6%).
Across all six by-elections 9957 votes were cast; the BNP gleaned just 411 of them (4.1%). And no, I don't think that translates to 12.3% if they'd fought all six seats!
But if May was poor, the prospects for June look worse. On the first two Thursdays of June there are fifteen scheduled by-elections (for a total of twenty vacancies). The nominations by party are as follows:
Conservative 17 Liberal Democrat 17 Labour 17 Independents 7 Green 3 BNP 3 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Left List 1 (there is also one "no description" candidate).
What is also interesting is the geographical spread of the BNP candidates, as all three are standing in Cumbria (one in Cockermouth - please form an orderly queue for jokes - and two in the Upperby Ward of Carlisle). So no BNP candidates in such areas as Oxfordshire, Gloucestershire, Nottinghamshire, Shropshire or Sussex. And no BNP candidates in Waltham Forest or Harlow byelections.
British National Party? Or Cumbria Party?
Oh, and no candidates in the Welsh byelections, in neither Newport nor Flintshire (home of Excalibur marketing unless I'm mistaken?) - not very good for a party led by a resident of Wales?
Signs that things are not too jolly in Chez BNP as things stand. Over the five week period just 5 candidates for 26 vacancies plus - of course - the failure to field a candidate in the Crewe & Nantwich parliamentary byelection.
And all this just as the 2007 accounts fall due for publication. Wonder what they will reveal?
Having adopted the role of historian to the phenomenon of the BNP's Quiet Revolution, a concept much trumpeted by that noted naturalist and angler, Mr Simon Derby, it is perhaps time to offer a further update.
As the excitement of May 1st, and Mr Richard Barnbrook's magnificent triumph in securing a seat on the largely irrelevant GLA (by a margin of a few decimal points), recedes let us consider the BNP's performance across a broader canvas. After all, the whole basis of the Quiet Revolution is:
a) that the BNP is fielding more and more candidates, across a wider geographical and social spectrum;
b) that their electoral support is growing.
So what happened in the rest of May? Well, there were only six local authority by-elections, four of them in Somerset! No seats changed hands - there were four Conservative Holds, and two Lib Dem. The BNP fielded candidates twice, and there was one Green. Oddly, there were no independent candidates.
In a Chard ward of South Somerset District Council a BNP candidate secured 17.2%; the Lib Dem held the seat, with the Conservatives a close(ish) second. A disturbingly high percentage, but would it have been significantly lower had there been a wider range of candidates? In particular one wonders what impact the lack of a Labour candidate had on this contest.
The other BNP candidate was for a Medway Unitary Authority vacancy, in the overcrowded "multiculti" south east of England. They polled just 6.8%. A particularly poor result, especially given the withdrawal of UKIP (who polled over 9% last time) and an Independent (over 6%).
Across all six by-elections 9957 votes were cast; the BNP gleaned just 411 of them (4.1%). And no, I don't think that translates to 12.3% if they'd fought all six seats!
But if May was poor, the prospects for June look worse. On the first two Thursdays of June there are fifteen scheduled by-elections (for a total of twenty vacancies). The nominations by party are as follows:
Conservative 17 Liberal Democrat 17 Labour 17 Independents 7 Green 3 BNP 3 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Left List 1 (there is also one "no description" candidate).
What is also interesting is the geographical spread of the BNP candidates, as all three are standing in Cumbria (one in Cockermouth - please form an orderly queue for jokes - and two in the Upperby Ward of Carlisle). So no BNP candidates in such areas as Oxfordshire, Gloucestershire, Nottinghamshire, Shropshire or Sussex. And no BNP candidates in Waltham Forest or Harlow byelections.
British National Party? Or Cumbria Party?
Oh, and no candidates in the Welsh byelections, in neither Newport nor Flintshire (home of Excalibur marketing unless I'm mistaken?) - not very good for a party led by a resident of Wales?
Signs that things are not too jolly in Chez BNP as things stand. Over the five week period just 5 candidates for 26 vacancies plus - of course - the failure to field a candidate in the Crewe & Nantwich parliamentary byelection.
And all this just as the 2007 accounts fall due for publication. Wonder what they will reveal?
Labels:
Barnbrook,
BNP,
Cumbria,
quiet revolution,
UKIP
May 13, 2008
The Quiet Revolution...nods off
This article was submitted by one of our readers, webeatthebnp. We welcome any contributions (as long as those contributions conform to the law and are in reasonably good taste) from our supporters. Please send your articles to us via email.
Four years ago, in early 2004 the BNP was plotting great things in Crewe. A County Council by-election in the town, following the death of a Labour member, saw them hit the town with their traditional campaigning approach:
What happened? The Lib Dems took the seat, Labour second, the BNP and Tories a distant third and fourth.
At which point a distant third became a triumph. They would be standing candidates in all 19 borough seats a month later. But in fact they stood...er...nil! (Their County Council candidate couldn't stand - he lived outside the borough; as did their agent).
In 2005 they fielded three candidates; in 2006 two (all five came last); in 2007...nil; and in the 2008 elections to the new Cheshire East Unitary Council...nil, again. And all this against the background of a town which has seen one of the highest rates of Eastern European migration in Britain.
And following the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody in April they had the chance to contest a parliamentary by-election. Briefly Stormfront got excited. It was a great opportunity - 'White Man' urged that a candidate should be fielded, warning that 'nominations must be closing before long'. Posted at 5.24pm - on the day nominations closed. At 4pm. Don't you just love these idiots (well, no actually).
At which point failing to find a candidate suddenly became a tactical masterstroke. Or, at least, a bloody relief to the residents of Crewe and Nantwich.
webeatthebnp
Four years ago, in early 2004 the BNP was plotting great things in Crewe. A County Council by-election in the town, following the death of a Labour member, saw them hit the town with their traditional campaigning approach:
- deliver a few leaflets
- get the local press to run "BNP to target town" stories
- make up some stories to frighten the locals (in this case branding Portuguese migrant workers as "asylum seekers" who were all given free mobile phones and cars)
- use the publicity to unearth some willing (stupid?) local activists
- claim a tremendous doorstep reception - 'thumbs up from passing motorists', 'people applauding our candidate in the street', 'families offering their virgin daughters to our canvassing team'
What happened? The Lib Dems took the seat, Labour second, the BNP and Tories a distant third and fourth.
At which point a distant third became a triumph. They would be standing candidates in all 19 borough seats a month later. But in fact they stood...er...nil! (Their County Council candidate couldn't stand - he lived outside the borough; as did their agent).
In 2005 they fielded three candidates; in 2006 two (all five came last); in 2007...nil; and in the 2008 elections to the new Cheshire East Unitary Council...nil, again. And all this against the background of a town which has seen one of the highest rates of Eastern European migration in Britain.
And following the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody in April they had the chance to contest a parliamentary by-election. Briefly Stormfront got excited. It was a great opportunity - 'White Man' urged that a candidate should be fielded, warning that 'nominations must be closing before long'. Posted at 5.24pm - on the day nominations closed. At 4pm. Don't you just love these idiots (well, no actually).
At which point failing to find a candidate suddenly became a tactical masterstroke. Or, at least, a bloody relief to the residents of Crewe and Nantwich.
webeatthebnp
Labels:
BNP,
Crewe,
quiet revolution,
reader article,
webeatthebnp
February 18, 2008
Reader article: That terribly quiet revolution...is still very quiet!
This article was submitted by one of our readers, Iliacus. We welcome any contributions (as long as those contributions conform to the law and are in reasonably good taste) from our supporters. Please send your articles to us here.
I have commented previously on the BNP's delusional claim that they are benefiting from a "quiet revolution" - one reflected by the party's increased success in contesting local authority by-elections, and in garnering votes.
February 7th provided further evidence that their claims are, indeed, delusional.
A by-election in a Surrey parish, which the BNP's "blonde bombshell campaigning mum" failed to win, despite huge media coverage, rather distracted attention from eleven rather more important by-elections that day to County, Borough, District and city Unitary Authorities. To have so many by-elections on a single day is unusual, doubtless related to a reluctance to issue the necessary paperwork over the Christmas and New Year holiday period.
So what happened on "Super Thursday"? Well let's start with candidates nominated:
Conservative 11
Labour 8
Lib Dem 8
UKIP 5
Green 5
Independent 2
BNP 1
English Democrats 1
Hardly a sparkling performance by the BNP! And who actually won the seats? Conservatives 6 (down 2), Lib Dems 2 (no change), Independents 2 (up 2), Labour 1 (no change). So no good news for the BNP there.
Share of the vote? Well, the average vote per candidate was as follows:
Independents 52.5% (but only two candidates - and both won!)
Lib Dems 44.5%
Conservatives 40.5%
Labour 17.3% (pretty miserable)
BNP 15.0% (but only one candidate)
UKIP 10.2% (depressed by a miserable 1.7% in one seat)
Green 5.1%
English Democrats 3.6% (in a seat they'd polled 17%+ last time)
Now I'm sure some in the BNP will crow about beating UKIP and the Greens, and "almost equalling the Labour party of government", but that would be deeply wishful thinking. The reality is that on that single day UKIP managed to poll 10%+ in three wards (two in Lancashire and one in Staffordshire), and 9.1% in a fourth (in Great Yarmouth - recently "graced" by a visit from Nick Griffin). UKIP also fielded five times as many candidates as the BNP. The Greens had a similar success in fielding candidates, but three of their candidates polled under 5% - the others achieved a slightly better 8.3% and 9.7%. Many of us may be sympathetic to parts of the green "programme" but - for whatever reason - their electoral fortunes are at present are pretty grim outside a very small number of areas.
It was a poor day for Labour, though their percentages were depressed by very low votes in true blue Hertfordshire (4.7%) and Wiltshire (a truly awful 2.0%), and in Portsmouth where an extraordinary Lib Dem campaign reduced the Labour vote to 10.6% on a 28.5% swing from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems.
The BNP? One candidate in the whole country, in a ward with no Lib Dem candidate, and just 15.0%. That quiet revolution sure is quiet!
14th February Postscript
There were four further by-elections on 14th February - three in England and one in Scotland. In England the three major parties fought all three, Independents and Greens two, BNP and the Popular Alliance (a fragment of Veritas !) one each. Again, not a great BNP achievement. Denise has already summarised the outcome in the Burton ward which saw the only BNP intervention, and I agree with the posted comment that it was a bit of an "in between result". Not good enough to be an encouragement to the BNP; but not bad enough to cheer us too much!
The two other by-elections were in Labour-held seats in Preston and Waltham Forest - and it must be cause for concern for the BNP that they were unable to find a mug (I'm sorry, I mean a committed local activist) to contest each seat! Preston is, of course, in the North West - which has a dynamic new Regional Organiser ... one Nicholas Griffin. He really needs to get his act together or he'll be purged. And the failure to find a candidate in Waltham Forest doesn't bode well for the LGA/ Mayoral polls in May (not that it upsets me you understand). In the event it was the Liberal Democrats who seized the initiative, a 13% swing in Waltham Forest (seat gained) and a 15% swing in Preston (Labour majority reduced to just 23).
The Scottish by-election, for Moray Council, was contested by ten candidates, and resulted in an SNP gain from Independent. Though there was no far-right involvement the result is worth listing for sheer novelty value:
SNP 884 (35.1%)
Ind 845 (33.5%)
Labour 459 (18.2%)
Ind (no 2) 278 (11.0%)
Con 223 (8.8%)
Lib Dem 53 (2.1%)
SSCUP 37 (1.5%)
UKIP 20 (0.8%)
Ind (no 3) (16 0.6%)
Ind (no 4) 1 (0.0%)
(Yes, that is 1 vote for the fourth Independent! And SSCUP stands for Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party!)
I have commented previously on the BNP's delusional claim that they are benefiting from a "quiet revolution" - one reflected by the party's increased success in contesting local authority by-elections, and in garnering votes.
February 7th provided further evidence that their claims are, indeed, delusional.
A by-election in a Surrey parish, which the BNP's "blonde bombshell campaigning mum" failed to win, despite huge media coverage, rather distracted attention from eleven rather more important by-elections that day to County, Borough, District and city Unitary Authorities. To have so many by-elections on a single day is unusual, doubtless related to a reluctance to issue the necessary paperwork over the Christmas and New Year holiday period.
So what happened on "Super Thursday"? Well let's start with candidates nominated:
Conservative 11
Labour 8
Lib Dem 8
UKIP 5
Green 5
Independent 2
BNP 1
English Democrats 1
Hardly a sparkling performance by the BNP! And who actually won the seats? Conservatives 6 (down 2), Lib Dems 2 (no change), Independents 2 (up 2), Labour 1 (no change). So no good news for the BNP there.
Share of the vote? Well, the average vote per candidate was as follows:
Independents 52.5% (but only two candidates - and both won!)
Lib Dems 44.5%
Conservatives 40.5%
Labour 17.3% (pretty miserable)
BNP 15.0% (but only one candidate)
UKIP 10.2% (depressed by a miserable 1.7% in one seat)
Green 5.1%
English Democrats 3.6% (in a seat they'd polled 17%+ last time)
Now I'm sure some in the BNP will crow about beating UKIP and the Greens, and "almost equalling the Labour party of government", but that would be deeply wishful thinking. The reality is that on that single day UKIP managed to poll 10%+ in three wards (two in Lancashire and one in Staffordshire), and 9.1% in a fourth (in Great Yarmouth - recently "graced" by a visit from Nick Griffin). UKIP also fielded five times as many candidates as the BNP. The Greens had a similar success in fielding candidates, but three of their candidates polled under 5% - the others achieved a slightly better 8.3% and 9.7%. Many of us may be sympathetic to parts of the green "programme" but - for whatever reason - their electoral fortunes are at present are pretty grim outside a very small number of areas.
It was a poor day for Labour, though their percentages were depressed by very low votes in true blue Hertfordshire (4.7%) and Wiltshire (a truly awful 2.0%), and in Portsmouth where an extraordinary Lib Dem campaign reduced the Labour vote to 10.6% on a 28.5% swing from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems.
The BNP? One candidate in the whole country, in a ward with no Lib Dem candidate, and just 15.0%. That quiet revolution sure is quiet!
14th February Postscript
There were four further by-elections on 14th February - three in England and one in Scotland. In England the three major parties fought all three, Independents and Greens two, BNP and the Popular Alliance (a fragment of Veritas !) one each. Again, not a great BNP achievement. Denise has already summarised the outcome in the Burton ward which saw the only BNP intervention, and I agree with the posted comment that it was a bit of an "in between result". Not good enough to be an encouragement to the BNP; but not bad enough to cheer us too much!
The two other by-elections were in Labour-held seats in Preston and Waltham Forest - and it must be cause for concern for the BNP that they were unable to find a mug (I'm sorry, I mean a committed local activist) to contest each seat! Preston is, of course, in the North West - which has a dynamic new Regional Organiser ... one Nicholas Griffin. He really needs to get his act together or he'll be purged. And the failure to find a candidate in Waltham Forest doesn't bode well for the LGA/ Mayoral polls in May (not that it upsets me you understand). In the event it was the Liberal Democrats who seized the initiative, a 13% swing in Waltham Forest (seat gained) and a 15% swing in Preston (Labour majority reduced to just 23).
The Scottish by-election, for Moray Council, was contested by ten candidates, and resulted in an SNP gain from Independent. Though there was no far-right involvement the result is worth listing for sheer novelty value:
SNP 884 (35.1%)
Ind 845 (33.5%)
Labour 459 (18.2%)
Ind (no 2) 278 (11.0%)
Con 223 (8.8%)
Lib Dem 53 (2.1%)
SSCUP 37 (1.5%)
UKIP 20 (0.8%)
Ind (no 3) (16 0.6%)
Ind (no 4) 1 (0.0%)
(Yes, that is 1 vote for the fourth Independent! And SSCUP stands for Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party!)
Labels:
BNP,
Iliacus,
quiet revolution,
UKIP
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