The Iliacometer - a November preview

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At the end of October I set out a number of 'performance indicators' by which the electoral progress of the BNP might be assessed.

By the end of the week, following a Knowsley by-election, I will be able to post the full details for November, with evidence of any trends in polling, but for the moment here is an update on indicators a and ai - which assess their ability to contest elections.

Here are the monthly figures since July for seats contested; by-elections which have taken place; and the percentage contested by the BNP - my indicator a):

July 8 - 23 - 35%
August 2 - 9 - 22%
September 8 - 24 - 33%
October 8 - 38 - 21%
November 2 - 17 - 12%

Yes, you read that correctly - in 17 by-elections across Britain the so-called British National Party managed to find just 2 candidates (Conservatives 15, Labour 11, Lib Dems 16! , Greens 4). That's 12% - less than one in eight! (In July and September they were contesting a third of seats, or more.)

On my indicator ai) which aims to smooth out monthly variations by taking a rolling figure across the previous two months the trend was:

End-August 31% September 30% October 26% November 18%

I see a trend there - and it cheers me more than it will please the BNP! Back in a few days with news of the other indicators on the Iliacometer! Not to be missed!