July - beaches, barbecues...and BNP burnout!

This article was submitted by one of our readers, Iliacus. We welcome any contributions from our supporters (as long as those contributions conform to the law and are in reasonably good taste). Please send your articles to us via email.

There were (by my reckoning) 35 local authority byelections in July (I speak here of "principal area authorities" - counties, boroughs, unitaries; not parish/community councils). The BNP contested just five of them.

The totals for each party were in fact as follows: Conservatives 32, Liberal Democrats 26, Labour 25, UKIP 10, Greens 10, BNP 5, Plaid Cymru 3 and the English Democrats 1.

Interestingly, there was no "new ground" broken this month, which is unusual and must be very depressing for the BNP leadership. This also allows fairly easy comparison with past performance.

Having fielded no candidates at all in the seven byelections held on July 1st, they contested three of the seven contests held on the 8th. In Darlington they polled 4.8%, down from 13.6%. Their actual vote fell from the remarkably uniform 157 (in 2003) and 167 (2007) to a pathetic 41. In Redbridge they contested a ward in which they had polled 624 votes in 2006, but which had no BNP candidate in May 2010. At the byelection they polled just 115 votes (4.5%); because there was multiple voting in a three-member ward in '06 it is not sensible to try to calculate a change in vote share. In neighbouring Barking & Dagenham we saw the appalling Richard Barnbrook seeking to regain a seat having been rejected in May. He failed. Again, it is difficult to calculate meaningful vote-share percentages, but his vote - 642 - was well down on his figures for 2006 (1,454) or May '10 (1,340). But we shouldn't kid ouselves. With 34% of the vote he was worryingly close to the sort of result which could claim a seat in the future. However, given the totemic significance of this byelection to the fascists and his high profile this must have been a crushing disappointment to both Barnbrook and the party.

On the 15th there were nine byelections; and no BNP candidates. The English Democrats entered the fray in Leicester, a ward they had not previously contested. They got 33 votes (1.6%).

The eight byelections on the 22nd saw just one BNP candidate, in Basildon. They polled 70 votes (3.9%), down from 8.8% last time.

Finally, on July 29th they contested one of three byelections, in the Bilston North ward of Wolverhampton Council, a ward in which they had polled 589 votes (11.8%) in May. This time they polled 131 (6.6%). A miserable, wretched performance.

Incidentally, in neighbouring Walsall there had been a byelection in the Bloxwich ward on 15th July. Now this is a ward in which the BNP had previously performed reasonably well, with 719 votes (22.1%) in 2006 and 722 (12.6%) in 2010. Almost incredibly, they failed to nominate a candidate!

So to summarise - no electoral progress; votes and vote share down wherever it could be (sensibly) calculated; failure to field a candidate in a ward where they had previously managed over 20%; and no evidence of finding new candidates in new areas.

Now you may wonder why I have not put the above figures through the much-loved and widely-respected Iliacometer. Well, to be perfectly honest one doesn't need an Iliacometer to summarise the current electoral fortunes of the BNP. They are doing very, very badly!

Good!

P.S. I have managed to trace records of sixteen parish council byelections during the month. The BNP failed to find a candidate in any of them.

The Iliacometer - What happened in November

On 24th November I posted a taster of some of the Iliacometer ratings for the month. With all byelection results now in I can offer a full review of the month, which was rather pathetic for the BNP. How sad.

Those who have been following my posts will know that I have created six 'performance indicators' (PIs) by which the BNP's performance can be assessed objectively. An earler article set out the basis of these PIs - so I will content myself with giving you the figures, and any relevant observations.

PI.1 Percentage of byelections contested in month: 12%
The lowest figure for some time, well down on the 35% of July, and 33% in September. Put bluntly, the BNP contested just two seats out of seventeen! (During the same month the Greens contested four seats - the Lib Dems sixteen!)

PI.2 Percentage of byelection contested over previous two months : 18%
The purpose of this rolling average is to 'smooth out' the effects of one particularly good or bad month. There is a clear trend over the past few months:
End-August 31% September 30% October 26% November 18%

PI.3 Rate of contesting previously-contested wards : not applicable in Nov

PI.4 Percentage share of the vote retained : not applicable in Nov
None of the seats up in November had been contested at the preceding election, so these PIs do not apply for the month. (The October figures were 50% and 59%).

PI.5 Rolling average percentage vote in 'new' wards : 7.5%
At the end of July this figure was 10.5%; end-October 9.3%. Their performance in 'new' areas seems to be on a downward trend. The days when the BNP could put up a candidate in 'virgin' territory and get 20%+ seem - at least for the moment - to have passed.

PI.6 Rolling average percentage vote in 'abandoned' wards : n/a in Nov
Again, as there were no such cases in November no figure can be calculated.

Summary. Only 17 byelections in the month; none in wards recently contested by the BNP. Where they did stand - Doncaster and Knowsley - they polled 4.3% and 8.6% (average 6.45%). In Doncaster their share may have been reduced by the presence of an English Democrat. And although they had not previously contested the Knowsley seat (Halewood South), they had polled 20% in a neighbouring ward (Halewood North) in 2008 so a very poor result.

They are fielding fewer candidates, who are then polling worse results. That's why I have described November as 'pathetic' for the BNP. Let's hope December follows the trend!

The Iliacometer - a November preview

This article was submitted by one of our readers, Iliacus. We welcome any contributions from our supporters (as long as those contributions conform to the law and are in reasonably good taste). Please send your articles to us via email.

At the end of October I set out a number of 'performance indicators' by which the electoral progress of the BNP might be assessed.

By the end of the week, following a Knowsley by-election, I will be able to post the full details for November, with evidence of any trends in polling, but for the moment here is an update on indicators a and ai - which assess their ability to contest elections.

Here are the monthly figures since July for seats contested; by-elections which have taken place; and the percentage contested by the BNP - my indicator a):

July 8 - 23 - 35%
August 2 - 9 - 22%
September 8 - 24 - 33%
October 8 - 38 - 21%
November 2 - 17 - 12%

Yes, you read that correctly - in 17 by-elections across Britain the so-called British National Party managed to find just 2 candidates (Conservatives 15, Labour 11, Lib Dems 16! , Greens 4). That's 12% - less than one in eight! (In July and September they were contesting a third of seats, or more.)

On my indicator ai) which aims to smooth out monthly variations by taking a rolling figure across the previous two months the trend was:

End-August 31% September 30% October 26% November 18%

I see a trend there - and it cheers me more than it will please the BNP! Back in a few days with news of the other indicators on the Iliacometer! Not to be missed!