Stretton by-election: BNP rejected

Burton-upon-Trent is well known as the brewing capital of Britain; it's also the place where Marmite and Bovril are made - and for good measure, Branston Pickle was invented there.

The town lies on the cusp of an area, the East Midlands, which has for some time been delivering BNP votes notably above their average elsewhere. In May 2007 BNP candidate Clive Jones achieved 33.3% in Stapenhill ward on the south-east side of Burton; and more recently a BNP candidate standing in nearby Swadlincote's Church Gresley ward by-election achieved 35.37%, which prompted us to warn:

Exactly why the BNP in the East Midlands has been able to buck the trend of its own performances elsewhere is not readily obvious. The wards in which it has been doing well are little different demographically and socially from those in other parts of the country where it has failed to make headway. However that may be, there can be no doubt at all now that anti-fascists and the legitimate political parties have some serious work to do if the BNP is to be prevented from launching an East Midland-led revival.

Tonight the BNP is contesting Stretton ward, Burton-upon-Trent, for a seat on East Staffordshire Borough Council. The candidate is again Clive Jones, who, though he cannot expect to win, must entertain thoughts of a 20% plus vote.

Apart from Jones's Stapenhill candidature last May, the BNP contested only two other East Staffordshire seats: Crown (12%) and Shobnall (16.3%).

The by-election was caused by the resignation of a Tory councillor, who managed, in short order, to be stopped for drink-driving after a fight outside a pub, and abandoned his wife and young children for a woman he met on the Internet.

Stretton lies on Burton's north-east fringe and is serious Conservative territory (as is most of East Staffordshire, where the current council is comprised: Con 24, Lab 12, LibDem 2). According to the 2001 census, 91.4% of Stretton residents owned their own homes, while 40% owned two or more cars. 16.4% gave their occupations as Manager or Senior Official, while only 9.5% said they were manual workers.

The demographic is clearly reflected in Stretton's voting patterns. Last May's elections produced this result:

Con 1261 Elected
Con 1221 Elected
Con 1059 Elected
Lab 717
PA 621 (Popular Alliance)
Lab 536
Lab 496

The Popular Alliance is a remnant of Robert Kilroy-Silk's Veritas party, campaigning in territory very close to that of the BNP. As the PA has established a presence in Stretton and is standing in this by-election it will be interesting to note how it fares when faced with a BNP candidate.

Equally interesting will be the fate of the Labour vote. Few seriously expect Labour ever to win Stretton, which may leave their vote vulnerable to BNP and Liberal Democrat attrition unless they put in a particularly good campaign. The omens aren't good.

The real dark horses in tonight's contest are the Liberal Democrats. Despite failing to stand last May, they do have a history in Stretton, having once held the ward and even taking it in a by-election some years ago. With votes to gain from Labour and the Conservatives, the presence of the Liberal Democrats should make this a less one-sided contest.

Stretton ward, East Staffordshire Borough Council result (percentages in brackets):

Con 661 (36.89)
Lab 366 (20.42)
BNP 327 (18.25)
PA 233 (13.00)
LibD 205 (11.44)

Total 1792 (28% turnout).

Well, you win some and you lose some. The Liberal Democrat failure to make any real impact is something of a surprise. Less of a surprise is the Popular Alliance's mauling at the hands of the BNP, which performed slightly worse than expected.

Though it would have taken a strange combination of circumstances to keep the Tories from winning this ward, and though the BNP was never going to be the party to stop them, we see again signs that the BNP took votes from Labour and the Tories (as, clearly, did the Liberal Democrats) to add to their "natural" vote, hitherto in the hands of the Popular Alliance.

It is worth noting that though the Popular Alliance suffered badly, its vote did not evaporate, suggesting that while some voters may well be prepared to support a hard-right anti-EU party, they aren't necessarily likely to switch to a race-obsessed party like the BNP - something we noticed earlier this month in Calne Lickhill.

Our verdict: it could have been worse from our point of view, but it should have been so much better from theirs.