October 19, 2007

BNP's near-miss in East Midland by-election a warning to anti-fascists

Our local by-election reports have regularly stressed that despite entering into a long period of electoral stagnation, the BNP is still capable of pulling off some nasty surprises, and this week we have to report a very nasty surprise.

The sole by-election contested by the BNP last night was at Church Gresley, Swadlincote, which elects to South Derbyshire District Council. South Derbyshire is currently controlled by the Conservatives, who have a majority of seven over Labour (there is one Independent and no Liberal Democrat representation).

Swadlincote sits squarely within an area of the Midlands noted for delivering high BNP votes, as we discussed in our report on the Charnwood District Council Shepshed by-election and for this reason we must take a particular interest in the Church Gresley contest.

The ward itself, on the south side of Swadlincote, is held by Labour. At the May elections two Labour candidates contested against two Conservatives in a straight fight. The combined voting percentages were a mathematically neat 66.6% Labour, 33.3% Conservative. There was, then, a danger of the intervening BNP candidate feeding off the Labour vote, and that some Conservative voters, knowing that the Tories could not win Church Gresley, might be tempted to switch to the BNP.

Though the BNP has never previously fought Church Gresley, in May the party fielded two candidates for South Derbyshire DC seats. Because he BNP stood single candidates in multiple vacancy wards where the other parties ran two or more candidates, their results are open to interpretation.

Contiguous to Church Gresley is Swadlincote, contested in May by last night's candidate Richard Fallows. The BNP averaged vote came in at 22.7%, placing Fallows fourth ahead of three Conservatives and three Liberal Democrats. In next door Newhall and Stanton, the BNP's Paula Bailey took an averaged vote of 23.4%, and despite coming seventh of seven (three Labour candidates convincingly beat the three Conservatives) obtained the better result of the two BNP candidates.

The closeness of the BNP's May votes and the linear contiguity of Church Gresley with Swadlincote and Newhall and Stanton gives us some idea of the yardstick by which last night's result can be judged. The BNP will have aimed at 23% of the vote or better in a three-cornered (Lab/Con/BNP) contest in a Labour-held ward.

There is, as we must concede, no avoiding the fact that the racist party did very much better than that.

South Derbyshire D.C. Church Gresley ward result:

Lab 639 43.80
Con 304 20.84
BNP 516 35.37



Total 1459

Though the BNP clearly ate substantially into the Conservative vote, it was the Labour vote which suffered most from the BNP's intervention. Had the Liberal Democrats stood to further split the mainstream vote in Church Gresley we could very easily be reporting a BNP gain.

Exactly why the BNP in the East Midlands has been able to buck the trend of its own performances elsewhere is not readily obvious. The wards in which it has been doing well are little different demographically and socially from those in other parts of the country where it has failed to make headway. However that may be, there can be no doubt at all now that anti-fascists and the legitimate political parties have some serious work to do if the BNP is to be prevented from launching an East Midland-led revival.

One good result does not a summer make for the BNP - but we have been warned.

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Exactly why the BNP in the East Midlands has been able to buck the trend of its own performances elsewhere is not readily obvious."

Perhaps not to you privileged middle-class poseurs in your UAF ivory towers it isn't, but to ordinary people who have to live with the 'delights' of multi-cultural 'enrichment' and uncontrolled mass immigration the reasons are crystal clear.

Strange how your 'BNP in crisis' nonsense begins to ring rather hollow now isn't it comrades ?

Antifascist said...

'Perhaps not to you privileged middle-class poseurs in your UAF ivory towers it isn't, but to ordinary people who have to live with the 'delights' of multi-cultural 'enrichment' and uncontrolled mass immigration the reasons are crystal clear.'

For your information, this 'middle-class poseur' is working-class and lives on a council estate, and Lancaster is deeply and happily multi-cultural. The difference between us is that we embrace multiculturalism and thus enjoy the experience.

'Strange how your 'BNP in crisis' nonsense begins to ring rather hollow now isn't it comrades ?'

After a single result? I think not.

Another excellently written and very honest report, Denise. Thank you.

Anonymous said...

Honest! You don't know the meaning of the word.

Try publishing just 1% of the pro bnp posts here and we may just begin to see how isolated and backwards your little minds are.

You lot are nothing but idiots and cowards, try holding a conversation with a bnp member - you can't can you? You are scared stiff of your own inabilty to do anything other than preach hatred and push old ladies around.

Try pushing me Ketlan you fat ponce. I'll push you back so god damned hard your fat backside will hit the floor ten minutes before your peas sized brain.

You lot are so thick you can't see the irony of what you preach so hard against is what you have become, and of which the bnp never were in the first place.

Who Da Nazis. LOL

James B. said...

"Another excellently written and very honest report"
Definitly. A lot more honest that your likely to read on the far right sites.

Anonymous said...

A good report except for one point. It is simplistic to say that if the Liberal Democrats had stood the BNP might have won.

A Lib Dem candidate would probably have attracted support from people who did not vote this time because they did not like any of the three parties that stood. A Lib Dem candidate might also have attracted votes from people who wanted to make a protest against both main parties and voted BNP in the absence of any other candidate.

Voters do not think in terms of BNP or "the others". A Lib Dem campaign might have raised issues that affected people's decisions on whom to support in an indirect way. Every candidate who campaigngs changes the nature of the contest.

In the Loughton Alderton by-election in August the Lib Dems were accused of splitting the "anti-BNP" vote and letting the BNP in. In this unusual instance, where there was also a strong Residents Association candidate who should have won, there may be some truth in this accusation although even here one cannot say what the result would have been had the Lib Dems not stood. Lib Dem campaigners argued that they had brought out a lot of anti-BNP voters, not only for the Lib Dems but also for other parties, who might otherwise not have bothered to vote.

In contrast in some wards in Barking and Dagenham where BNP candidates won in May 2006, voters were deprived of a proper democratic choice because Conservatives and Lib Dems did not stand and voted BNP because they were fed up with the incumbent Labour council.

While in some cases it is right for democratic parties to cooperate to defeat the BNP, in our democracy voters should have the freedom to choose between the other parties. Defeating the BNP is important but it is not the only issue.

Nick Griffin said...

"Try pushing me Ketlan you fat ponce. I'll push you back so god damned hard your fat backside will hit the floor ten minutes before your peas sized brain."

More threats from clubfoot Tommy.

Fisher said...

That filthy post by the anonymous nazi explains precisely why the far-right will ultimately get nowhere in British politics. Obviously the writer is just s violent stupid thug. As long as the British National Party is supported by lunatics like that the vast majority of the British public will stay well clear of it and quite right too.

Rah said...

Anonymous (Green Arrow) said...

I'll push you back so god damned hard blah blah...

You stupid coward, if you are going to threaten someone, at least have the guts to put your name up

LOL at your pathetic rant...

Anonymous said...

"You lot are nothing but idiots and cowards, try holding a conversation with a bnp member - you can't can you? You are scared stiff of your own inabilty to do anything other than preach hatred and push old ladies around."

It seems there is a very upset BNP bunny rabbit posting on here .

Clearly the unsettling of BNP members is upsetting them

Rah said...

Antifascist said...

Another excellently written and very honest report, Denise. Thank you.

Seconded.

Why allow the internet warrior (Green Arrow) a voice here?
He doesn't allow freedom of speech on his hate site

Anonymous said...

"A very honest report (from DG) - A lot more honest that your likely to read on the far right sites."

Oh I dont know I think they will agree that as Denise puts it they polled much better than they hoped for and might even have won if the libdems had stood and that the percentage is a warning to those who seek to write the BNP off not to be complacent.

What reason do you have have for thinking right wing sites would lie about all that?

It was a good result in a good area making it a very good day for the BNP - as DG agrees

Dave S said...

I think whoever allowed that comment through was right to do so. It's a prefect example of the vile reality of the BNP and if nothing else, serves to remind us what we're fighting against.

Dave S said...

"You stupid coward, if you are going to threaten someone, at least have the guts to put your name up"

We all know these thugs are basically cowards.

Anonymous said...

Ignoring Williams/Green Arrows rantings - the article is excellent.

Johnc said...

"What reason do you have have for thinking right wing sites would lie about all that?"

They'll lie about it by claiming that it shows the BNP surge about to begin and by it showing the BNP are a 'major' force in British politics when neither is true.

"Strange how your 'BNP in crisis' nonsense begins to ring rather hollow now isn't it comrades ?"

And theres an example.

Anonymous said...

I think you will see a lot more Tories vote BNP in an area where they know they (Tories) can't win.

The pube on Griffin's soap said...

To the anonymous BNP morons, DG's election reports are always honest, unlike yours. She knows how to read an election. If the BNP vote goes up she says it and if it goes down she says it, plus she can explain why it did.

She's right to admit that this result was nasty and antifascists have to sit up and take notice of whats going on in the East Mids.

I want to know if there was any UAF action in the area that could have helped stop the BNP.

Good straightforward honest report DG.

Lee John Bonkers said...

The Liberal Democrats DON'T bring out new voters. That's a fantasy of theirs. If the had stood the BNP might have got in. DG got that right. If they stand next time knowing that we'll have them to thank for helping the BNP.

"Defeating the BNP is important but it is not the only issue."

You're posting on an anti-fascist blog mate. Defeating the BNP is the main issue. If you don't think it is why the hell are you posting here?

Anonymous said...

You're posting on an anti-fascist blog mate. Defeating the BNP is the main issue. If you don't think it is why the hell are you posting here?

I think its important that they don't prosper but no-one in their right mind believes they are actually going to take power, locally or nationally, do they? People look at this site and a handful of others to see what is happening on the far-right not because we are obsessed with them.
Politically they are insignificant; who runs local and national government affects us right now and that clearly is the bigger and most pressing issue. Minimising the BNP's popularity is in contrast a side issue, albeit important.

Denise G said...

@ anonymous

The fact is that a lot of people up and down the country regularly engage in hard, untiring, often dangerous, and usually unsung work to keep the BNP "insignificant".

You could call that "obsessive".

Or you could call it absolutely vital work in minding the political back door while the other parties address themselves to bigger and more pressing issues.

Anonymous said...

"Or you could call it absolutely vital work in minding the political back door while the other parties address themselves to bigger and more pressing issues."

Well done Denise. That's got to be the most frank and clear admission I've ever seen from anyone involved in UAF that they are in fact nothing more than state-sponsored stooges whose sole purpose is to keep the political elite safe from the prying eyes and unwelcome attentions of the 'great unwashed' electorate.

Heaven forbid that the 'ingorant proles' should suss out that the political establishment is run by an out of touch elite bunch of liberals who absolutely detest the very people whose taxes they squander on themselves.

So here's a great idea, let's fund a 'campaign group' to smear and attack anyone who tries to upset this cosy arrangement we've got going...

Denise G said...

You appear to have missed the hint of sarcasm in the quoted line.

But what else would one expect from paranoid BNP members who seriously believe (viz several blogs) that the Liberal Democrats deliberately refrained from contesting Church Gresley purely to keep the BNP out?

Anonymous said...

Most of their blogs used your report, which was the first report up because I read it at 0530am. The Snotty Arrow copied bits by 0739am and added a bit about secret deals because he's a pillock, just like the pillock your repleid to. Why bother with them?