The Iliacometer - What happened in November

On 24th November I posted a taster of some of the Iliacometer ratings for the month. With all byelection results now in I can offer a full review of the month, which was rather pathetic for the BNP. How sad.

Those who have been following my posts will know that I have created six 'performance indicators' (PIs) by which the BNP's performance can be assessed objectively. An earler article set out the basis of these PIs - so I will content myself with giving you the figures, and any relevant observations.

PI.1 Percentage of byelections contested in month: 12%
The lowest figure for some time, well down on the 35% of July, and 33% in September. Put bluntly, the BNP contested just two seats out of seventeen! (During the same month the Greens contested four seats - the Lib Dems sixteen!)

PI.2 Percentage of byelection contested over previous two months : 18%
The purpose of this rolling average is to 'smooth out' the effects of one particularly good or bad month. There is a clear trend over the past few months:
End-August 31% September 30% October 26% November 18%

PI.3 Rate of contesting previously-contested wards : not applicable in Nov

PI.4 Percentage share of the vote retained : not applicable in Nov
None of the seats up in November had been contested at the preceding election, so these PIs do not apply for the month. (The October figures were 50% and 59%).

PI.5 Rolling average percentage vote in 'new' wards : 7.5%
At the end of July this figure was 10.5%; end-October 9.3%. Their performance in 'new' areas seems to be on a downward trend. The days when the BNP could put up a candidate in 'virgin' territory and get 20%+ seem - at least for the moment - to have passed.

PI.6 Rolling average percentage vote in 'abandoned' wards : n/a in Nov
Again, as there were no such cases in November no figure can be calculated.

Summary. Only 17 byelections in the month; none in wards recently contested by the BNP. Where they did stand - Doncaster and Knowsley - they polled 4.3% and 8.6% (average 6.45%). In Doncaster their share may have been reduced by the presence of an English Democrat. And although they had not previously contested the Knowsley seat (Halewood South), they had polled 20% in a neighbouring ward (Halewood North) in 2008 so a very poor result.

They are fielding fewer candidates, who are then polling worse results. That's why I have described November as 'pathetic' for the BNP. Let's hope December follows the trend!