Solidly Conservative Tamworth is a highly desirable place to live. An area with which we are familiar, this south Staffordshire town sits hard on the Warwickshire border (which once bisected it), and much of its wealth and growth was generated by coal mining.The mines of south Staffs and north Warwickshire now gone, the character of the place has changed fundamentally in the last decade or so, a change reflected in the political make-up of the town.
Once a solidly working-class Labour-voting town, the disappearance of the pits and the contraction of industry made Tamworth attractive to people living in the nearby West Midlands conurbation, who have decamped there in large numbers, making Tamworth something of a dormitary for Birmingham and its industrial suburbs. There is almost certainly an element of "white flight" to add in to the equation.
In 1998 Tamworth Borough Council was controlled by 28 Labour councillors, with just two others (one Conservative and one Independent) forming the opposition. By 2000 there had been a dramatic change - Labour still controlled the council with only two votes, but were reduced to 16 seats, with the Conservatives on 13 and the Independents retaining one. In 2002 boundary changes saw a revival for Labour, which retained council control with 22 seats against the Conservatives' 8 - but the relentless effects of demographic changes delayed by the boundary re-drawings were making themselves felt. In 2004 the Tories took control of the council (Con 16, Lab 13, Ind 1). In 2006 the Labour Party's decline continued apace - Con 22, Lab 8, Ind 1, and in 2007 they lost another two seats (Con 23, Lab 5, Ind 2).
Of course, Labour's catastrophic fall from grace in Tamworth cannot be wholly attributed to population movement. There are, as always, local factors, and we should take account of the failure of many Labour voters to identify with the "New Labour" project in what is an "Old Labour" area. We might also note the desultory efforts of the Liberal Democrats, who in May contested only four out of Tamworth's ten wards, coming last in each, their participation having little effect on the outcome of the Conservative/Labour battles fought across the town.
Tamworth being home to an insignificant number of ethnic minorities, the town has no history of racial tension, and was long barren ground for right-wing extremist parties. Even in the heady days of the 1970's the National Front never managed to raise more than a tiny, short-lived and completely ineffective group. The BNP presence is also tiny, but demographic and political changes there have been, and these produced a surprise result in the May local elections when the BNP's sole runner achieved a 25.14% vote share in Stoneydelph ward.
What makes that result interesting is the source of the BNP vote. In May 2006 the Stoneydelph result was (percentage vote share in brackets):
Con 827 (56.68)
Lab 632 (43.32)
Total 1459
In May 2007, with the intervention of a BNP candidate, the result came out as:
Con 606 (38.57)
Lab 570 (36.28)
BNP 395 (25.14)
Total 1571
We can see immediately that the big losers to the BNP were the sitting Conservatives, 18% of their vote apparently switching to the BNP - which, we believe, did not fight a full campaign. The implications are readily obvious - had the Liberal Democrats intervened they could hardly but help to further diminish the Tory and Labour vote share to the benefit of the BNP, and had the BNP engaged in a full canvass they may well have put themselves within spitting distance of a win.
Heartened by this missed opportunity in Tamworth Stoneydelph the party has jumped at the chance to contest a by-election in Conservative Castle ward, where its candidate is Lynne Smith (pictured), who contested Stoneydelph in May.
A businesswoman, 52 year-old Smith is - on the surface - a paragon of respectability, more Tory party material than BNP. Her campaign is typical of that the BNP has fought in so many by-elections of late, being a direct appeal to the sensibilites of Middle England, with (as far as we have seen) little or no advertising of the BNP's core policies on race and immigration - a large and telling ommission, not exactly reeking of forthright honesty..
This time the BNP has campaigned full bore, deputy-leader Simon Darby and Nuneaton serial candidate Alwyn Deacon getting involved, which is a good indication that the party has expectations in Castle ward - though, perhaps wisely, nobody is saying what they are.
However, we believe that such is the effort expended by the BNP that their minimum expectation cannot, in all seriousness, be for less than a 20% vote share and the consignment of the Liberal Democrat to fourth place.
The May 2007 result in Castle ward was:
Con 917 (47.61)
Lab 736 (38.21)
Lib 273 (14.17)
Total 1926
November 8th by-election result:
Lab 619 (40.32)
Con 613 (39.93)
BNP 208 (13.55)
Lib 95 (6.18)
Total 1535
Analysis: A greatly-reduced turnout saw a disappointing (for them) result for the BNP, while Labour somewhat surprisingly held on to its vote and grabbed the seat more or less by default, winning by a mere six votes after a recount. Once again it appeared to be the Tory vote that was directly affected by the BNP standing, with the residue of their lost votes and the Lib Dems disastrous showing possibly accountable by the massive drop in the number of voters who were willing to turn up at the polling station. How much of this was thanks to the appalling weather and how much to voter apathy/disillusion/disinterest is debatable.
According to the ever-sycophantic Green Arrow, the BNP 'pulled out all the stoppers and knocked their knuckles raw', which ties in with Denise's statement above that they had campaigned hard and clearly expected to do well. The fact that they managed to take over 25% in Stoneydelph would have encouraged them to think that 20-25% was a realistic possibility in this by-election but again we see the BNP vote staying relatively low even when the political climate in the country is perceivably favourable to the party, and we are treated to yet another by-election (how many is that now?) where the BNP have worked hard and achieved little.
The BNP's results over the whole country last May and in every by-election since have, despite all the hard work on the ground, produced nothing new for the party, and it's fair to ask ourselves if it has hit its peak or if it still has a way to go. One thing is for sure - the drama of the Barking and Dagenham result is starting to look very old and the small success of a by-election gain keeps eluding the party. Long may it continue.
Posted by Denise G and Antifascist
18 comments:
Solid reporting backed up by some useful background work. Your election reports are becoming a tradition for me.
I think the BNP has peaked. If they can't do better than that when things have never been more favourable to them when will they ever.
"Solid reporting backed up by some useful background work. Your election reports are becoming a tradition for me."
True. These reports are becoming a tradition for a lot of people.
"I think the BNP has peaked. If they can't do better than that when things have never been more favourable to them when will they ever."
If I was in the BNP, I'd be extremely depressed today. All that hard work for nothing. Dear me.
On the face of it, the BNP appear to have taken more votes from the Lib Dems than from anyone else, althouch there is doubtless a good deal of churning between the parties.
The BNP have averaged 14/15% pretty steadily in by-elections over the past four years. That's not enough to win many seats under First Past the Post, but is certainly much better than the NF managed in the '70s, and puts them well ahead of either the Green Party and UKIP, in terms of vote share. It also implies that under a PR system, such as the London Assembly, or the Euro elections, it's highly likely they'll win seats.
"On the face of it, the BNP appear to have taken more votes from the Lib Dems than from anyone else"
I don't think that's true. As a former Lib-Dem councillor I have to say I feel it's pretty unlikely that an LD voter would swing over to the BNP.
"That's not enough to win many seats under First Past the Post, but is certainly much better than the NF managed in the '70s, and puts them well ahead of either the Green Party and UKIP, in terms of vote share."
Yes, but how relevant is that? The Greens are a lost cause except in some pretty specific areas and UKIP, well, they're just a bad joke.
"London Assembly, or the Euro elections, it's highly likely they'll win seats."
That's true of course, as was pointed out on here a few weeks ago, though I'm convinced that putting Richard Barnbrook in the London Assemby will do nothing more than make the BNP a national laughing stock.
All in all a very fair and comprehensive report. Thumbs-up to LUAF.
I'd be surprised if any Liberal votes went to the BNP Sean. That'd be a first. Most likely Lib voters knew their candidate couldn't win and switched to Lab or Con, probably more Lab than Con. It was the Cons who got stung.
I think LUAF's reports are accurate so the BNP probably played down its racism and only had the local press to deal with. In the assembly and Euro elections it will be different because the national press will have them in the spotlight. They won't come close to 15% but might scrape just over 5%.
All the sings are that their peaking.
What sould seem to be the message here is the same one repeated in election after election, but most of the media insist on taking the opposite view. It is that the BNP polls best, and wins most ofton, in high turnouts. Low turnout = relatively poor BNP votes, as they do not have a large core of dedicated voters. High turnout = good BNP votes, as they appeal to large numbers of people who do not normally vote, feeling isolated from politics, making a protest vote, or simply pissed off with the three main parties being clones of each other.
Parish elections (especially by-elections) are an exception, as hardly anyone votes here anyway, and a campaign that gets an extra 20 people tovote may well win the seat, but in 'proper' elections the fact is that the more people voting, the more chance the BNP has of winning.
Another excellent report and a whole bunch of useful and interesting comments.
jack beetons comments about dicky barnbrook becoming a london assembly member and a laughing stock.
You are quite right here in B & D watching him try to perform in the council chamber is a laugh a minute.
I can't imagine any Lib Dem activist switching to the BNP, but there are certainly people who vote Lib Dem simply as a protest, who might do. In 2002, the Lib Dems had a big vote in Barking & Dagenham, but that vote collapsed in 2006. Much of that vote went over to the BNP.
I can't see the BNP winning 15%, across the country (or across London), in any round of elections, but 7 or 8%, for both the London Assembly and the Euros, seems plausible.
If you think that Sean you need a few lessons in realities.
Why are you talking up the BNP's prospects, anyway?
sean said....that the libdem vote collapsed in B & D in 2006 it didnt just collapse it died. In fact the libdems did not even try, non of the usual paper candidates, even in the 1 ward where they have been successfull year on year, wiped out, we now have 2 lab and 1 bnp in that ward, the libdems and the tories stood back in B & D in 2006 and didnt even try.
Don't know if you're aware but Nick Cass's wife suzie is working as a physio for Dewsbury Rams Rugby Club which is very strange bearing in mind their anti racism policy. Can't you put pressure on them to sack this nazi bitch
Well, if it makes you happier Anonymous, should I say "the BNP will get a laughably small percentage of the vote in the European and London elections, and have no possibility whatsoever of getting anyone elected?" Is that more realistic?
And out of interest, what explanation do you have for the Lib Dems going from first place to third place in Eastbury, in 2006?
I think Sean is right - I can hardly see a philosophical Liberal switching to the BNP, but there are anti-system people who might make that switch.
In fact, I can think of two occasions where people have actually said to me "I'm voting either Lib Dem or BNP".
The BNP are fond of claiming that when the Lib Dems stand down in a ward it's a "plot" to block the BNP. In fact, there's some evidence that the BNP do WORSE if people also have a Lib Dem (or other non-Lab/Tory) option
"but in 'proper' elections the fact is that the more people voting, the more chance the BNP has of winning."
Which is in direct contrast to media and Searchlight anaylsis. In truth a high turnout can work for the BNP and against them depending on whoes turning out i.e. the dicenchanted or those frightened of the BNP being elected. Results show both has occurred. The elections next year being under PR makes it easier foir the BNP to b elected and that will be promoted by the media as a success (and by the BNP) regardless if they only get 5%. So all bets off.
PS. Don't think Sean was talking them up only pointing out reality even if it sits emotionally uneasily with some.
'Don't know if you're aware but Nick Cass's wife suzie is working as a physio for Dewsbury Rams Rugby Club which is very strange bearing in mind their anti racism policy. Can't you put pressure on them to sack this nazi bitch'
What a disgusting person you are.
Even going back to the -old- BNP of Derek Beacon, it was a massive switch from Lib Dems to BNP that made them a household name.
A lot of Lib Dem voters were voting AGAINST the sitting, and fairly solidly corrupt, self-serving and arrogant Labour council, and as soon as the Lib Dems and Labour started producing 'joint statements' and 'co-operation policies' to oppose a small, but growing, BNP presence in the area, people rejected the Lib Dems en masse as being simply another type of Labour, and switched over to the BNP, as the one party which was obviously not tainted with the brush of Labour corruption (the Tories being almost completely insignificant in the area at the time - not quite so true now, with a substantial Tory vote, plus Respect and Greens there hoovering up protest votes).
There are probably fewer core Lib Dem voters than any other party (as a percentage, probably lower than even BNP ones); most people see the Lib Dems as a protest AGAINST something, not a party that has any real policies of its own. Most people probably would have trouble naming three Lib Dem policies! The Lib Dems themselves have aided this image by making massive efforts in by-elections which are rarely followed up (providing the model for the BNP nationwide), and also by making a big play on 'tactical voting', which is basically asking the less-likely to win party's voters to vote Lib Dem to keep the most likely winner out, rather than voting for what they support.
The BNP has not really tried this tactic in any elections barring a few 'break through' areas, but it will probably be seen in the near future - propoganda aimed at UKIP supporters to vote BNP rather than a pro-EU main party, and (especially) trying to get Tory voters to oust Labour and LibDem councillors and MPs, matbe even MEPs.
sean said....if it makes you happier anon.....
well sarcasm has never been a strong debate winner with me.
I also think it is quite possible that the bnp will get at least 1 seat in both the gla and the euros,the gla because they will only need to get such a low% of the vote, this could easily allow them in there, and the euros because MEPs are too distant people dont know them, when did your MEP last visit your constituency or ask your views.
But Eastbury was a strong LibDem Ward for many years, Labour always struggled to get a look in. In 2006 the 3 Labour Candidates worked their socks of, there was a 100% canvas of the ward, they were local people, and only narrowly missed out on all 3 places.
The LibDems put up a very weak show, they only put out 2 generic leaflets, the sitting LibDem Councillors had all but disappeared from the ward 2 had moved out of the borough and the 3rd who remained just did not do the work.
But throughout the whole of the 2006 campaign it was very noticiable that the Tories and the LibDems were backing of and in some wards it came down to a straight fight between the BNP and Labour.
Im not suggesting for a minute that the LibDems and the Tories got together on this one but it certainly looked that way.
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