We've all had a lot of fun over the past few months reporting the fortunes of the BNP in local council by-elections.
More often than not we've been able to highlight the BNP's failure to achieve its electoral targets, and we have pointed out a more or less consistent down-swing in the BNP vote, where it can be measured by previous performances. The overall picture of BNP electoral stagnation has on occasion been challenged, most notably in results from the East Midlands and adjacent areas.
On only two occasions since last May (when just one out of nine sitting BNP councillors was re-elected) have we had an opportunity to assess a BNP by-election performance in a ward where it is the defending party.
September saw the BNP hold on to Loughton Alderton ward by the skin of the skin of its teeth. A 5% vote loss proved near fatal, but the racist party could at least crow that it had retained the seat, which it did, while displaying an astonishing complacency towards what was in the circumstances a significant percentage fall.
In December a self-inflicted by-election in Sandwell Prince's End ward saw the BNP comprehensively defeated, its vote falling by almost 16%.
Given the BNP's record of defending its own seats, the omens for last night's Havering Gooshays ward by-election did not look good - indeed, BNP pundit Martin Wingfield would only go so far as to predict a "close" contest. His reluctance to comment on the BNP's prospects seemed to imply that he would not have been surprised had the BNP lost Gooshays, despite the party ploughing everything it had into the campaign.
We have to admit that this was our feeling.
Voters generally punish parties which cause uneccessary by-elections, and anti-fascists mounted an excellent campaign in Gooshays, so it was to be expected that the BNP would struggle to retain its vote.
In the event, what happened was both shocking and surprising: the BNP not only held the ward, it increased its share of the vote.
Havering LBC Gooshays ward by-election result (percentages in brackets):
BNP 865 (37.96)
Lab 741 (32.51)
Con 489 (21.46)
UKIP 70 (3.07)
NLP 62 (2.72)
L-D 52 (2.28)
Total 2279 (turnout 22.6% - 31% in May 2006).
The BNP vote share rose by 9.7%, Labour by 6.6%. The Conservatives, who should have made this a photo-finish, were the clear losers, suffering a 5.5% loss - but their candidate unwisely took a holiday during the campaign, which effectively stymied their chances. Electors don't like to be taken for granted, and it is extremely probable that a good number of Conservative voters switched to the BNP to punish their candidate.
The UKIP's failure to convince that it is anything more than a single-issue party with any future at local level must also be factored in. Back in 2006 it still enjoyed a measure of support and could mount effective campaigns, but things have changed since then. A vote for the UKIP in local council elections seems increasingly pointless and its vote is in decline. Though it does not follow that all UKIP voters will automatically support the BNP when the UKIP candidate has no chance, there is a certain amount of crossover. Last night the UKIP vote fell by 7.6%, much of which will have gone to the BNP.
We can't and won't attempt to disguise the fact that Gooshays was an unqualified success for the BNP, and that the result holds serious implications for the forthcoming GLA elections. It is a stark warning that in future greater and more intelligent effort must be put into mobilising the anti-BNP vote - it isn't enough, in the current climate, merely to dissuade voters from supporting the BNP. Under normal circumstances that might work, but at a time when none of the major parties is entirely trusted what too often happens is that their voters fail to turn out in sufficient numbers, resulting in low-turnout elections which exaggerate the true scale of BNP support.
The BNP fought a second by-election last night, in coastal West Sussex - deep-blue Conservative country where it has little chance of causing upset.
In a three-cornered Con/LibDem/BNP contest for Arun District Council's Yapton ward seat, the BNP took 19.77% of the vote, coming last. Though the racist party has never previously fought this seat, in May last year they did contest other Arun DC wards, Orchard and Pevensey, achieving similar results.
Arun DC Yapton ward result:
Con 620 (59.79)
L-D 212 (20.44)
BNP 205 (19.77)
Total 1037
We would like to encourage deeper debate on the BNP's Gooshays performance over the next few days. If you were involved in the anti-fascist campaign or with one of the major parties, please use the comment facility to make your contribution. We'll make every effort to moderate them as quickly as possible.
March 21, 2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
23 comments:
This was a one-off freak result and the neo-nazis won't find such success in most places they poll, so Simon Darby and co. should not get too comfortable.
There's still no reason that Richard Bumbrook should expect to win a London GLA seat, even though the half-baked rebels have chickened out to lick Nick Griffin's smelly arse.
If I was a fascist rebel, I would blame the likes of Chris Hill, the undercover Griffinite who switched late in the day to the rebel camp to sew seeds of doubt, and ensure the rebels wouldn't cause any problems in the GLA elections.
If Griffin's bnp were to win seats in the London Assembly, he will surely have the money to turn his Croatian retreat into a presidential palace, and it will be all the rebels fault.
Love him or loathe him, there will never be a BNP without Nick "The Cyclops" Griffin! (well, not until Mark Collett takes over, when griffin retires to Croatia), Sadie and the rest of you spineless rebel creeps.
ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha!
Can we please put a bit of perspective of this trivial unimportant piece of news?
Even the BNP website has declared the result as " Breaking News"
Good heavens, lets look at what has really happened?
Here is the councillors breakdown
There are 54 councillors, three elected for each of the 18 wards into which the borough is separated. The political make-up of the Council is: 34 Conservative, 13 Residents' Group, 3 Rainham & Wennington Residents Independent Association, 2 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat Focus Team, and 1 British National Party councillor.
There are more councillors in this tiny area than the BNP have in the entire UK.
Let the little nazis have their moment in the sun, God knows they dont get many and they might just get sunburnt in the process.
Happy Easter
The reason the BNP vote rose was the same that Labour's did. It was seen, promoted and reflected in the candidates output, to be a 'Two-Horse' race rather like a French 2nd Round vote i.e. vote for who do you not want to win as who you do.
That being said the seat reverted to type. A Working-Class seat with the 'Labour' tradition predominant, the W-C Tory being a minority and Liberalism thin on the ground. What has changed however is that there are challenges from the right within all the three traditions.
There is some crossover between UKIP and BNP in W-C areas but not as much as forecast. More sadly from the former to the latter since, in W-C areas, they are seen to be the 'real-deal'.
Local Labour activists have come to the conclusion that it's potentially a 'two-horse' race in their London Strongholds (but only of course in White W-C areas). However in the GLA elections it will not be viewed or spun that way so the BNP will find that some of their vote will revert back to the 'fringe'. That being said a 30%vote in the Gooshay type wards will potentially tip the BNP into a three seat position. Many white Londoners will use these elections to protest against the Capital's 'Diversity' and use the BNP as the preferred vehicle. It could peak in the same way UKIP did last time on the back of an anti-EU protest. If correct this means that very little can be done to stop it.
Even trying to increase the overall vote will i think fall on deaf ears, after all there were apparantly 23+ different leaflets pushed through doors and still only a fifth voted (although the drop since May could have been higher). If the regional or more the National media (most!) made voting a priority issue it might have a marginal impact but i can't see it happening.
Shit happens. This is a bad result for us but it doesn't alter the underlying trend. If there is a positive to be gained from it it is that it serves to remind us not to allow the BNP's recent problems to make us complacent.
"It is a stark warning that in future greater and more intelligent effort must be put into mobilising the anti-BNP vote - it isn't enough, in the current climate, merely to dissuade voters from supporting the BNP. Under normal circumstances that might work, but at a time when none of the major parties is entirely trusted what too often happens is that their voters fail to turn out in sufficient numbers, resulting in low-turnout elections which exaggerate the true scale of BNP support."
A fair report, but it's a BNP success in a sea of failure.
Trouble is people feel so cut off from the main parties it's hard to see turnouts rising. Yhe real cause of the BMP's good London results is years of Blair and Brown and crap Tory leaders.
An extremely balanced and fair report and interesting analysis, Denise. Thanks for that.
For what it's worth, it's my belief that if one of the main parties ever actually managed to convince the electorate (working-class, black or white) that it gave a shit, the BNP would be dead. If the main parties would only wake up to this fact, the far-right could be wiped out and we might be lucky enough to get a half-decent government into the bargain.
'There are more councillors in this tiny area than the BNP have in the entire UK.'
A point well worth making. Thanks, Tony.
I second that
Hello, this is Odin’s Mum. Have any of you seen Odin about today? He’s late. He promised to take me for bingo this evening down Valhalla High Street. I hope he isn’t hanging around that coloured girl, Sharon – she’s bad news, she’ll lead Odin astray you know. I hope that Odin isn’t a figment of my imagination. If he is, then I’ll be very, very cross with him – I’ve had a nice kosher Sæhrímnir on the roast for him all day.
DEnise has a point. No good giving any voter anti BNP lit unless they're going to vote.
Maybe it's neccessary to identify the strongest candidate and urge voters to support as an anti BNP gesture?
A bummer of a result, and lessons to be learnt - strategically and tactically, or do I mean nationally and locally?
There is a strong anti-politician spirit out there at the moment (Derek Conway, "John Lewis List", to add to previous gripes). It is particularly directed against the Labour government and Tory administrations where they exist at local level.
On the same day there was a sweeping Lib Dem gain from Labour in Lambeth, which suggests that they too can profit in certain circumstances.
Turning to Havering I believe that all the main parties were hamstrung.
Labour - by 11 years in government
Tories - running the local council (I understand) and making unpopular decisions
Lib Dems - very weak in that area.
The result was that anybody who wanted to "knock" anybody or anything else voted BNP. The best way of stopping the BNP in their tracks is to have somebody else addressing some of the issues they "bandwagon" onto !
And one slightly encouraging note. Aggregate up the right-wing, anti-EU share of the vote in the ward (ie UKIP and BNP) and it's remained pretty level. All that's happened is that UKIP has fallen, BNP has risen.
I think we should have a close look at the anti-BNP campaign. Something went wrong and it's not the first time.
The LU report is honest, so should our analysis be, even if it hurts.
Let me tell you something irishtony
yes we may have less councillors now than we had this time last year.
yes we may have 45 councillors out of a possible 22,300 excluding parish councillors
yes we undersatnd that there are in excess of 80,00 parish councillors and they are the equivelent of the parish council on The vicar of Dibley
yes this election saw an increase in our vote of approx 86 more
people
yes our membership has fallen in the last few years
but nick knows what he is doing, he is lulling the marxists into a false sense of security. This result proves we are the fastest growing political party in the UK. This result proves we will be in power within the next 5 years.
tell ya what paddy why dont ya piss off back to Ireland and save us the job of deporting you when we get into power
It was a one off. Like the Liberal Dems or the Greens claiming a good result in a LOCAL ELECTION
chnages everything.
They're prats if they think this is the TIPPING POINT.
They do (see Shitfront).
Eejits
.."tell ya what paddy why dont ya piss off back to Ireland and save us the job of deporting you when we get into power."
Does that go for Rustem too?
"This result proves we will be in power within the next 5 years."
That's what you lot say EVERY time you get a halfway decent result. Ten minutes later you fuck up again. In the next five years you lot will be nowhere, Griffin would have screwed your party to death and pissed off to Croatia and without that fat racist bastard the BNP would be about as electable as the BPP.
Why did you allow Lee Barnes to post that offensive nazi troll remark aganst Irish people? So much for the BNP claiming they are pro-Irish, when scumbags are making bigotted remarks like this.
What's happened to the moderating on this website, Lancaster Unity, for God's sake?
Oh yes, and a great report Denise, thank you. You people have an outstanding team.
"nick knows what he is doing, he is lulling the marxists into a false sense of security"
What a load of crap. False sense of security my arse. Nick Griffin only knows how to do one thing - how to feather his own nest. You BNP supporters are just a bunch of suckers waiting to be taken for a ride by the next con man who comes along. It'll be interesting to see who you choose to lead the party after Griffin buggers off to Croatia leaving you lot in the lurch. Mark Collett no doubt.
I assume by "marxists" you mean anyone opposed to the BNP?
"What's happened to the moderating on this website, Lancaster Unity, for God's sake?"
Seems to me that Lancaster Unity made a very good decision allowing that offensive post through, though I doubt it was written by Lee Barnes because it was fairly coherent.
The comment allows people to respond properly to the rubbish the BNP obviously believes. A good move occasionally,in my opinion. Apart from anything else, it sees the BNP attacking the Irish. As we know, it has been trying it on in Ireland - let's hope their comments are made known.
I just re read the ihate irishtony post
Do i detect irony????
The result isn't trivial news. It's a warning that in SOME areas the Nazis can do well. The public remember victories better than defeats so all AF's should pay attention.
Where's everyone gone?
In response to Daves question, wheres everyone gone, i should think they are doing the same as me trying to work out when the other major political parties in Havering and nearby areas are going to wake up and realise there is work to be done.
Dagenham party is the only one who has grasped the nettle and is campaining hard.
Barking forget it, the MP Hodge will not speak against the nazis, spends all her time attacking the labour council and getting people to come in for coffee and choccy biscuits.
Come on you lot wake up
Post a Comment