September 21, 2007

Thursday's by-elections - still no breakthrough for BNP

Thursday's crop of local by-election results brought no sign of a revival for the electorally moribund British National Party. In only one ward (Southend Shoeburyness) did they improve over their May vote - by 0.5%, their candidate coming fourth out of five standing, with 13.94%.

Elsewhere where the BNP's by-election vote can be measured against its May outings the trend of BNP stagnation and vote leakage continued.

In Worcester St. Clements their vote dropped from 15.8% to 11.67%, a loss of 4.3%, giving them third place in a field of five. In Birmingham Brandwood the loss was 2.65%, down from an already low 8.85% to 6.2%., putting the BNP third in a field of eight.

Sharon Ebanks's rebel New Nationalist Party also stood in Brandwood, scoring a paltry 25 votes (0.5%) - a fact BNP members are already using to take the focus off their own dismal performance. Ebanks's party has for some time been considered a spent force and this result can only further underline its irrelevance.

In Wigan's West ward the BNP's vote loss was marginal. The lack of a Conservative candidate this time around did not help them and it appears that most Tory voters gave their support to the Liberal Democrats, who did not contest the seat in May. With 264 votes (13.78%) the BNP came a poor third to the LibDems, who took 24.22%.

The BNP broke fresh ground in two other wards, obtaining a better result than it claims it expected in Copeland Harbour (Whitehaven) and a worse than expected result in Nuneaton and Bedworth Abbey.

In Copeland Harbour ward BNP candidate Bill Pugh came third of three with 23.44% of the vote, a surprise to the BNP and anti-fascists alike. The turnout was disappointing with only a third of electors bothering to take part, a fact which may have helped the BNP, which conducted an intensive campaign and pulled out all the stops to get its vote out on polling day.

The BNP's biggest disappointment of the night came in Nuneaton and Bedworth's Abbey ward, contested by serial candidate Alwyn Deacon. The BNP believed it might win the ward and never failed to talk up its prospects, BNP deputy leader Simon Darby writing on his blog that the election would be "close" and that he thought the BNP were "in with a chance".

It wasn't to be. The BNP came second in a field of six, mustering 21.49% to Labour's 37.94% - putting the BNP more than 16% adrift and leaving questions to be asked about the effectiveness of its research and the veracity of its canvass returns. The Liberal Democrat vote collapsed back from nearly 36% to just over 19%, the party's supporters switching to Labour as the perceived scale of the BNP threat became apparent in the last days of the campaign.

We have previously said that the months' long picture of BNP vote stall may be interrupted by the odd nasty surprise and the Copeland Harbour result certainly comes close to being that, but overall the story of electoral stagnation continues. It should be borne in mind that these are isolated by-elections and that the BNP is able to concentrate its supporters and finances into these small areas for intensive campaign work, a luxury that will not be available to the party next May.

Even so, while a comparison of last night's votes with those obtained in May (where possible) certainly indicates that the BNP is as far away from a breakthrough as ever, the results from Copeland Harbour and Nuneaton and Bedworth Abbey wards deserve some attention. There was no danger of the BNP being elected in either of these places, but the party has established a strong base vote in both. Though our feeling is that this is as good as it's going to get for the BNP in these wards and that subsequent elections will see their vote fall back, nothing can be taken for granted.

No matter how the BNP spins last night's results - and they will spin them - electorally the party is clearly at bay. We must be frank and admit that pre-May we quietly shared the BNP's expectation that by now we would be dealing with around 100 BNP councillors and recording a number of local by-election successes. That hasn't happened and on current form seems unlikely to happen any time in the near future, pleasing us as much as it has caused bitter disappointment within the BNP - but this relative good news does not mean that we can afford to take our eye off the ball.

The BNP will be looking for ways to break out of its present electoral impasse and we must remain as vigilant as ever. A single terrorist incident or a misguided statement by a leading politician could put a completely different gloss on the situation.

In no small measure the BNP's retreat into electoral stagnation can be ascribed to the unsung and untiring efforts of those small groups of anti-fascists who take the ugly truth of the BNP to the doorsteps of voters come rain or shine. They deserve our gratitude and support. Thank you, boys and girls. Your success is their failure.

Results (May percentages on right):

Birmingham Brandwood

Lab 1998 42.74
Con 1663 35.57
LibDem 285 6.10
BNP 290 6.20 8.85
Green 193 4.13
UKIP 64 1.37
NNP 25 0.53
Ind 157 3.36




Total 4675









Copeland Harbour

Lab 463 44.31
Con 337 32.25
BNP 245 23.44




Total 1045









Wigan West

Lab 837 43.68
LibDem 464 24.22
BNP 264 13.78 13.8
Com Act 219 11.43
Ind 72 3.76
Green 60 3.13




Total 1916









Southend Shoeburyness

Lab 460 23.48
Con 494 25.22
LibDem 66 3.37
BNP 273 13.94 13.41
Ind 666 34.00




Total 1959









Worcester St. Clements

Lab 604 42.48
Con 478 33.61
BNP 166 11.67 15.8
Green 52 3.66
UKIP 122 8.58




Total 1422









Nuneaton and Bedworth Abbey
Lab 807 37.94
Con 329 15.47
LibDem 409 19.23
BNP 457 21.49
Green 115 5.41
Ind 10 0.47




Total 2127

27 comments:

john p said...

Great news.

Antifascist said...

Another excellent election analysis from Denise, who is rapidly becoming our version of Peter Snow. ;-)

Peter Snow said...

Bugger it!

Anonymous said...

thank you for a great analysis, i share your view that we cannot sit bac, we have to keep applying the pressure in any way we can.

i particularly liked the reference 'misguided statement by leading politician' i do hope somebody is going to gag the MP for Barking Margaret Hodge then.

Anonymous said...

"Sharon Ebanks's rebel New Nationalist Party also stood in Brandwood, scoring a paltry 25 votes (0.5%) - a fact BNP members are already using to take the focus off their own dismal performance. Ebanks's party has for some time been considered a spent force and this result can only further underline its irrelevance"

Awww, thank you for the mention, Denise?

I look at it like this :-)

The NNP has been in existence for 9 months and yes 25 votes is not a lot but it was our first time there and no one has really heard of us.

The UKIP has been in existence for 10yrs? And, got only 64 votes.

The BNP who put out thousands of leaflets over the past four weeks and has been in existence for more than 25yrs scored only 290, less than half of their vote in May where they got 588 on a similar turnout. You will also note that when I was running the show for the BNP in Birmingham they scored 887 in Brandwood in 2006 :-)

Now, if the NNP was 25yrs old and only got 290 votes from a turnout of nearly 5000 I'd be very upset :-)

The Lib Dems did badly too

Regards

SE

Denise G said...

Sharon, one-man band independents who never knock a door or post a leaflet regularly do better than your candidate in Brandwood. I presume you did leaflet and canvass?

Comparing your vote to that of the UKIP really is to stoop to the same level as the BNP. We all know that the UKIP will do badly in local elections simply because people perceive them as a national issue party - it isn't difficult to predict that they'll never amount to much at local level, and very easy to shout "Look how badly UKIP did" to draw attention away from your own terrible result. The BNP does it all the time.

When I write up election results I draw upon my own long period as an activist (for the Conservatives). I know how it works, Sharon, and despite the brave face I know how you feel.

Whichever way you look at this, to pitch yourselves (the NNP) directly against a party that you had not the remotest chance of beating, and to do it while in the process of building your own party machine was - putting the kindest possible gloss on it - wrong-headed.

All you have achieved is to bring forward the date of the NNP's demise. Members on the ground want Trafalgars, not endless charges of the Light Brigade. If they can't have victories then they won't stay.

The more closely identified with failure you are Sharon, the more quickly does any hope you ever had for a future within nationalism recede. You know you have no future within the BNP, whichever faction emerges triumphant, and you know as well as we do why that is.

Sooner or later you're going to want to talk. Why not make it sooner?

Kindest regards,

Denise

Anonymous said...

message to S Ebanks following a very well written and somewhat sympathetic piece by DG

R.I.P.

Anonymous said...

"The more closely identified with failure you are Sharon, the more quickly does any hope you ever had for a future within nationalism recede. You know you have no future within the BNP, whichever faction emerges triumphant, and you know as well as we do why that is."



Dearest Denise, when the BNP first started it got how many votes?

Thank you for your kind words but I don't want a future in the BNP, they have no future as their declining vote tally keeps proving.

They're thieving bastards and scum and I wouldn't join them again if I were offered a trillion pounds.

The art of winning elections is capable people and a well known BRAND name. The BNP has the name but their incapable people keep on letting them down.

Were they ever to get rid of Griffin, Hannam, Walker, Collett you'd really have something to beef about ;-)

Do you have any suggestions for boosting our name? We can't pay you ;-)

And no, I don't want to talk.

Kindest regards

SE

webeatthebnp said...

Sorry Sharon, I sympathise (genuinely) with the rough deal you got from the BNP, though I despise your views!

But 25 votes in a ward with 5,000 electors is very, very, very, very, very poor.

I wonder how you found a proposer, seconder and 8 assentors? And how many of them voted NNP - or at all !!


NNP? RIP!

Nick Griffins Hotpants said...

Don't waste you time Denise. Ebanks and her NNP are all washed up and they know it, there's only her and "Brains" Axon and a website left and she hasn't got anything to tell us anyway.

Good articles on here from a good team from different backgrounds. It's getting better all the time. Must be good if SE is coming here for her election news!

Denise G said...

Were they ever to get rid of Griffin, Hannam, Walker, Collett you'd really have something to beef about ;-)

No, Sharon. This isn't about who's running the BNP at any particular time. It's about fighting racism and intolerance and bigotry - three ugly traits to which your former "friends" have been gleefully subjecting you of late.

It isn't very nice to be hated for what you are and what you cannot help but to be, is it?

And that is why this fight goes on regardless.

Anonymous said...

"webeatthebnp said...
Sorry Sharon, I sympathise (genuinely) with the rough deal you got from the BNP, though I despise your views!

But 25 votes in a ward with 5,000 electors is very, very, very, very, very poor.

I wonder how you found a proposer, seconder and 8 assentors? And how many of them voted NNP - or at all !!


NNP? RIP!"

I'm deeply touched by your kindness but if we all gave up on what we believed where would ANY of us be?

Kind regards

SE

Anonymous said...

"No, Sharon. This isn't about who's running the BNP at any particular time. It's about fighting racism and intolerance and bigotry - three ugly traits to which your former "friends" have been gleefully subjecting you of late."

I prefer not to pay attention to lies but I will ask you one very serious question if I may?

If you travelled to Morocco and were greeted by John from the West End serving you fish and chips, a population in jeans and T Shirts selling everything made in China and a declining indigenous Moroccan population, wouldn't you feel a twinge of guilt that the dominant culture and peoples had been destroyed? The BBC do, which is why they've set up a fund to save a dwindling African tribe who speak a unique language.

It isn't racism or bigotry to preserve what you have, what you know and what you love. It's human nature.

Regards

SE

Anonymous said...

hahahahahaha.

Ebanks actually posts on here to justify her results.

Talk about desperation.

Old Sailor said...

I have no time for the thoughts Ebanks and her friends espouse.

I have even less time for Whatmour and the rest of his urinating chums on the C**T website have.

However, I do not think that Lancaster UAF is the correct place for the intellectual heirs of Chesterton, Moseley, Jordan, Saunders Lewis, and Tyndal to slag off S.E. Let them do so on thier own web pages,

In fact when various NF/BNP/ACTION FRANCAIS/Etc A**eH***s post here I think it shows how effective Lancaster UAF is.

SE see the light, forget your indicresions - And fight the 'Erberts who were using you as a token.

Anonymous said...

"SE see the light, forget your indicresions - And fight the 'Erberts who were using you as a token."

Could you explain that in plain English?

Regards

SE

Anonymous said...

and now we finally have it, from her own fingertips SE says "No, i dont want to talk".

So after weeks of hints and innuendoes on this site we have the bottom line.

Can i suggest that SE gets her finger out and starts using her own site instead of this one.

Rusty Lee's Stunt Double said...

Does Sharon come on here because none of her "fash" mates want to talk to her?

I guess so.

Lancs UAF does not discriminate on race, obviously.

Anonymous said...

RW (yes thats right Ketlan)writes:

Two resignations/sackings this week - no word on hear so lets bring you up to date Nick Cass sacked and ian Dawson quits. Thats on top of Phil Edwards quiting as well. Soon only Griffin will be left.

JimPage said...

I was going to post to correct your bullshit anlaysis of these results, but on reflection, I dont contribute to pages written by self confessed searchlight grasses such as yoursleves....

Incidentally, noted the postings on the "Searchlight" thread trying to dig for information on AFA.

Anonymous said...

"Nick Cass sacked and ian Dawson quits"

Why? For both.

Jimpage said...

And further more I have never done anything to combat fascism so I recycle loads of old bollocks.

Anonymous said...

in response to jimpage....why bother posting then? go away little boy.

Anonymous said...

"Ian Dawson quits"

Thats bollocks, I know him personally. He hasn't quit.

Anonymous said...

anon said.....thats bollocks, i know him personally, he hasnt quit.

sorry i havnt got the right glasses on today, are you saying you know his bollocks personally?

Anonymous said...

Very witty....

Anonymous said...

anon said.....very witty...did i push the right button there then?