Thursday's by-elections - still no breakthrough for BNP

Thursday's crop of local by-election results brought no sign of a revival for the electorally moribund British National Party. In only one ward (Southend Shoeburyness) did they improve over their May vote - by 0.5%, their candidate coming fourth out of five standing, with 13.94%.

Elsewhere where the BNP's by-election vote can be measured against its May outings the trend of BNP stagnation and vote leakage continued.

In Worcester St. Clements their vote dropped from 15.8% to 11.67%, a loss of 4.3%, giving them third place in a field of five. In Birmingham Brandwood the loss was 2.65%, down from an already low 8.85% to 6.2%., putting the BNP third in a field of eight.

Sharon Ebanks's rebel New Nationalist Party also stood in Brandwood, scoring a paltry 25 votes (0.5%) - a fact BNP members are already using to take the focus off their own dismal performance. Ebanks's party has for some time been considered a spent force and this result can only further underline its irrelevance.

In Wigan's West ward the BNP's vote loss was marginal. The lack of a Conservative candidate this time around did not help them and it appears that most Tory voters gave their support to the Liberal Democrats, who did not contest the seat in May. With 264 votes (13.78%) the BNP came a poor third to the LibDems, who took 24.22%.

The BNP broke fresh ground in two other wards, obtaining a better result than it claims it expected in Copeland Harbour (Whitehaven) and a worse than expected result in Nuneaton and Bedworth Abbey.

In Copeland Harbour ward BNP candidate Bill Pugh came third of three with 23.44% of the vote, a surprise to the BNP and anti-fascists alike. The turnout was disappointing with only a third of electors bothering to take part, a fact which may have helped the BNP, which conducted an intensive campaign and pulled out all the stops to get its vote out on polling day.

The BNP's biggest disappointment of the night came in Nuneaton and Bedworth's Abbey ward, contested by serial candidate Alwyn Deacon. The BNP believed it might win the ward and never failed to talk up its prospects, BNP deputy leader Simon Darby writing on his blog that the election would be "close" and that he thought the BNP were "in with a chance".

It wasn't to be. The BNP came second in a field of six, mustering 21.49% to Labour's 37.94% - putting the BNP more than 16% adrift and leaving questions to be asked about the effectiveness of its research and the veracity of its canvass returns. The Liberal Democrat vote collapsed back from nearly 36% to just over 19%, the party's supporters switching to Labour as the perceived scale of the BNP threat became apparent in the last days of the campaign.

We have previously said that the months' long picture of BNP vote stall may be interrupted by the odd nasty surprise and the Copeland Harbour result certainly comes close to being that, but overall the story of electoral stagnation continues. It should be borne in mind that these are isolated by-elections and that the BNP is able to concentrate its supporters and finances into these small areas for intensive campaign work, a luxury that will not be available to the party next May.

Even so, while a comparison of last night's votes with those obtained in May (where possible) certainly indicates that the BNP is as far away from a breakthrough as ever, the results from Copeland Harbour and Nuneaton and Bedworth Abbey wards deserve some attention. There was no danger of the BNP being elected in either of these places, but the party has established a strong base vote in both. Though our feeling is that this is as good as it's going to get for the BNP in these wards and that subsequent elections will see their vote fall back, nothing can be taken for granted.

No matter how the BNP spins last night's results - and they will spin them - electorally the party is clearly at bay. We must be frank and admit that pre-May we quietly shared the BNP's expectation that by now we would be dealing with around 100 BNP councillors and recording a number of local by-election successes. That hasn't happened and on current form seems unlikely to happen any time in the near future, pleasing us as much as it has caused bitter disappointment within the BNP - but this relative good news does not mean that we can afford to take our eye off the ball.

The BNP will be looking for ways to break out of its present electoral impasse and we must remain as vigilant as ever. A single terrorist incident or a misguided statement by a leading politician could put a completely different gloss on the situation.

In no small measure the BNP's retreat into electoral stagnation can be ascribed to the unsung and untiring efforts of those small groups of anti-fascists who take the ugly truth of the BNP to the doorsteps of voters come rain or shine. They deserve our gratitude and support. Thank you, boys and girls. Your success is their failure.

Results (May percentages on right):

Birmingham Brandwood
Lab	1998	42.74
Con	1663	35.57
LibDem	285	6.10
BNP	290	6.20	8.85
Green	193	4.13
UKIP	64	1.37
NNP	25	0.53
Ind	157	3.36
Total	4675
Copeland Harbour
Lab	463	44.31
Con	337	32.25
BNP	245	23.44
Total	1045
Wigan West
Lab	837	43.68
LibDem	464	24.22
BNP	264	13.78	13.8
Com Act	219	11.43
Ind	72	3.76
Green	60	3.13
Total	1916
Southend Shoeburyness
Lab	460	23.48
Con	494	25.22
LibDem	66	3.37
BNP	273	13.94	13.41
Ind	666	34.00
Total	1959
Worcester St. Clements
Lab	604	42.48
Con	478	33.61
BNP	166	11.67	15.8
Green	52	3.66
UKIP	122	8.58
Total	1422
Nuneaton and Bedworth Abbey
Lab	807	37.94
Con	329	15.47
LibDem	409	19.23
BNP	457	21.49
Green	115	5.41
Ind	10	0.47
Total	2127