November 30, 2009

The Iliacometer - What happened in November

On 24th November I posted a taster of some of the Iliacometer ratings for the month. With all byelection results now in I can offer a full review of the month, which was rather pathetic for the BNP. How sad.

Those who have been following my posts will know that I have created six 'performance indicators' (PIs) by which the BNP's performance can be assessed objectively. An earler article set out the basis of these PIs - so I will content myself with giving you the figures, and any relevant observations.

PI.1 Percentage of byelections contested in month: 12%
The lowest figure for some time, well down on the 35% of July, and 33% in September. Put bluntly, the BNP contested just two seats out of seventeen! (During the same month the Greens contested four seats - the Lib Dems sixteen!)

PI.2 Percentage of byelection contested over previous two months : 18%
The purpose of this rolling average is to 'smooth out' the effects of one particularly good or bad month. There is a clear trend over the past few months:
End-August 31% September 30% October 26% November 18%

PI.3 Rate of contesting previously-contested wards : not applicable in Nov

PI.4 Percentage share of the vote retained : not applicable in Nov
None of the seats up in November had been contested at the preceding election, so these PIs do not apply for the month. (The October figures were 50% and 59%).

PI.5 Rolling average percentage vote in 'new' wards : 7.5%
At the end of July this figure was 10.5%; end-October 9.3%. Their performance in 'new' areas seems to be on a downward trend. The days when the BNP could put up a candidate in 'virgin' territory and get 20%+ seem - at least for the moment - to have passed.

PI.6 Rolling average percentage vote in 'abandoned' wards : n/a in Nov
Again, as there were no such cases in November no figure can be calculated.

Summary. Only 17 byelections in the month; none in wards recently contested by the BNP. Where they did stand - Doncaster and Knowsley - they polled 4.3% and 8.6% (average 6.45%). In Doncaster their share may have been reduced by the presence of an English Democrat. And although they had not previously contested the Knowsley seat (Halewood South), they had polled 20% in a neighbouring ward (Halewood North) in 2008 so a very poor result.

They are fielding fewer candidates, who are then polling worse results. That's why I have described November as 'pathetic' for the BNP. Let's hope December follows the trend!

22 comments:

Jace said...

"End-August 31% September 30% October 26% November 18%"

That looks wonderfully unhealthy for the BNP.

Dave T said...

The BNP has just announced that Clive Jefferson is its candidate for Copeland. Isn't he the guy who was suspected of major drug-dealing a few years ago? The BNP report is below.

Copeland BNP Announces its Prospective Parliamentary Candidate

The British National Party’s North West regional organiser, Clive Jefferson, has been nominated as the party’s parliamentary candidate in its key Cumbria target seat of Copeland.

The announcement was made in a press release issued by the BNP in Cumbria. “The first-ever entrance of the BNP in a general election in Copeland will be the most explosive issue in next year’s campaign,” the press release said.

“In the June County Council elections, the BNP stood a full slate of candidates in Copeland in our first-ever outing and came a clear third place with just under 17 percent of the vote. This translated to 3,250 BNP votes on a 30 percent turnout.

“Clive Jefferson was the highest-polling county council candidate in Cumbria, with a healthy 29 percent of the vote in the Frizington and Cleator Moor ward. His confirmation as parliamentary candidate for Copeland was confirmed at a group meeting last Thursday during which a further £200 was raised to add to the growing war chest,” the BNP group said.

“We intend to make Copeland the target seat for Cumbria next year and manpower and money will be focused there. The Labour Party have abandoned 20 seats due to lack of finance. Copeland is one of these seats which has been thrown to the wolves by Labour head office and the BNP is determined to stage its best fight ever.”

Jo said...

I hate to ask, Iliacus, but are you male or female? I keep imagining you as Lancaster Unity's very own Peter Snow but maybe I ought to change that if you're one of us.

Anonymous said...

They are fielding fewer candidates, who are then polling worse results.

That's what I like to hear. Interesting stuff thanks.

Iliacus said...

Jo,

I am male. Odd that you mention Peter Snow, as I stood next to said Mr Snow in a gents toilet at a political conference some years ago.

He is a lot taller than I am.

Iliacus

;-)

On a slightly more serious note, the purpose of the Iliacometer is to provide (over a period of time) an objective assessment of BNP performance which can be deployed when lazy journalists file "BNP progressing" stories in the face of actuality.

NewsHound said...

NOW WE KNOW - THE BBC HAD CYCLOPS ON QUESTION TIME TO BOOST THE FORTUNES OF ITS I-PLAYER!

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/11/30/nick_griffin_question_time_boosts_iplayer/

Solo said...

The BNP would surely want a candidate for Copeland, to remind everyone of the BNP member who murdered gay and black people of the same name!

Anonymous said...

Another enlightening article. Thanks, Iliacus.

Anonymous said...

I didn't think the BNP were too bothered about local election results anymore. I thought they were banking everything on getting Griffin elected in Barking at the general election next year.

irishtony said...

@ Iliacus


Fantastic work.

I can remember a time years ago when I was involved with a company who were in the property market.

Evening meetings were held in very upmarket hotels and unimaginable figures were discussed to try and close deals.

One of the negotiators, who was a friend of mine and a property developer, always arrived at these meetings dressed in a scruffy anorak, dirty jeans and a wooley hat that had seen better days.

Everyone else in their Bernini suits and Versace shoes would pose with their laptops and mobiles while this guy did his figures on an old napkin and a cheap biro.

My friend won every deal, beat all negotiators and had everyone eating out of his hand.

"If the figures dont work out on paper" he told me "They certainly wont work anywhere else, no matter how good the laptop is."

The BNP with their cultish membership cannot dispute your figures

I have always enjoyed looking at the dismal figures for the BNP and you articulate them so wonderfully

Keep up the good work

Adam B said...

"That's what I like to hear."

Me too!

Anonymous said...

"I didn't think the BNP were too bothered about local election results anymore."

Only because they're crap. If they were doing well, the party would be shouting these results from the rooftops.

Jo said...

"He is a lot taller than I am."

From what I've heard, he's a lot taller than most people. :) Thanks for the response.

Anonymous said...

"I thought they were banking everything on getting Griffin elected in Barking at the general election next year."

If they just shut up and let Margaret Hodge talk bollocks to everyone they'd probably win. Thankfully they'll put out the usual pile of glossy leaflets (only the best for the Welshpool wanker) packed with lies that can be refuted.

Anonymous said...

"PI.5 Rolling average percentage vote in 'new' wards : 7.5%
At the end of July this figure was 10.5%; end-October 9.3%. Their performance in 'new' areas seems to be on a downward trend. The days when the BNP could put up a candidate in 'virgin' territory and get 20%+ seem - at least for the moment - to have passed."

That's the section I like. Excellent article.

Jamie The Antifascist said...

Ah, if only the simpletons who post their "patriotic" comments after one of Gri££ins begging articles on the BNP's site could see what's really happening. No doubt they will call Illiacus a marxist-jihadist-supporting-loony-lefty...

Anonymous said...

The BNP has just announced that Clive Jefferson is its candidate for Copeland. Isn't he the guy who was suspected of major drug-dealing a few years ago?

Can't remember what happened though. Did it get to trial?

Anonymous said...

I have always enjoyed looking at the dismal figures for the BNP and you articulate them so wonderfully

Yeah, good job mate.

Anonymous said...

The BNP has just announced that Clive Jefferson is its candidate for Copeland.

Pmsl hope he gets in. Then the whold world can see what a buffoon he is!

Sally E said...

Lee John Barnes has let the BNP's anti-semitic mask slip once and for all: -
==============
http://leejohnbarnes.blogspot.com/2009/11/zionist-sunday-express-attack.html
==============
Quoting from his racist tirade against Jewish people: -

==============
(The words of Lee Barnes) "I despise the Sunday Express.

It is owned by the pornographer in chief of the British porn world Richard Desmond, a particularly loathsome Zionist who likes to let everyone know he is a Jew so as to silence any criticism of his massive pornography empire.

I look forward to the day when the BNP will take power and pass a new British Media Ownership Law that will remove as owners of any media organisation those who have been involved in the sexual exploitation of our people, who own businesses linked to pornography or who are loyal to Israel as opposed to Great Britain.

Media reform is vastly overdue in this country.

It was vile rags like The Sun, owned by the Zionist Rupert Murdoch and the Daily Express owned by the Zionist Richard Desmond, who acted as the primary peddlers of the bogus WMD propaganda used by Bush and Blair to get us into the Iraq War.

I regard Desmond and Murdoch as war criminals on a par with Julius Streicher, who was hanged by the allies after the Second World War for peddling Nazi propaganda that led to the war.

What is good for the Nazis is good for the Zionists.

No doubt though Desmond will scuttle away to Tel Aviv as so many other crooks and criminals have done, from Dame Shirley Porter to Robert Maxwell, with his pockets and bank accounts bulging with money stolen from his staff pension accounts.

As for Harrys Place - it is run and owned by 'one of Britains most prominent Jews' and Zionists a certain David T as described by his chums in the Daily Express.

The Zionist Network runs through every newspaper and encompasses a vast number of lickspittles and catemites in this country.

I enjoy going on the Harrys Place site and giving back to those Zionist hypocrites and scumbag some of the abuse they like to give out to us on a regular basis, such as when they called nick griffin a sub-human a few weeks ago.

The Zionists just love to use the rhetoric of the Nazis, their ideological ancestors.

It appears that the Zionist Network, so expertly revealed by Peter Oborne in his programme the Israel Lobby, really do think they control our democracy and run our country.

Such hubris will not go unpunished.

The entire system of media propaganda, econimic fraud, oil imperialism and Zionist treason that has been built by this network is drenched in blood and misery.

The whole world is sick of the Zionists and their evil hypocrisy and vile shallow cant.

Whilst our British soldiers die in the dust and mud of Iraq and Afghanistan, the Zionist parasites that run our nation mock them and their sacrifice with their treason and usurpation of our national democracy.

The time has come for this network of traitors to be extirpated from our nation, for the ringleaders to be arrested and either prosecuted for treason or simply deported.

The Sunday Express was the primary propagandist for the illegal wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the hands of its entire journalistic staff are drenched in the blood of this war.

Richard Desmond has even donated hundreds of thousands of pound to the butchers of New Labour.

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Rupert+Murdoch%27s+growing+porn+empire.-a0143720355
To be attacked by this nest of degenerate porn peddlers, snakes and Zionist traitors is the ultimate moral validation".

==============
It looks like Lee Barnes is proud to be an old school unreformed anti-semitic nazi bastard, and Cyclops Gri££in his pleased to have him in his party.

jack frost not renewing bnp 2010 said...

The widely detested gob-shite drug-dealer Jefferson is exactly the type of goon that’s great for anti-bnp. Not only is he given a wide berth by the majority of bnp members who can’t stand his childlike incessant clap-trapping whilst climbing up Griffins crack, he also has more baggage than Elton John. He alone is responsible for more quality bnp members fucking off than anyone else recently except Collett. Pretty soon the skeleton few effective activists they have left will also go. Trust me, the bnp is all but finished.

Anonymous said...

"The Zionist Network runs through every newspaper and encompasses a vast number of lickspittles and catemites in this country."

I guess Lee Barnes has read and re-read his copy of "Who are the Mindbenders?"