Welham Green by-election: BNP fails to impress

It is the election nobody wanted - except for the BNP.

Exploiting an anomaly that allows just two registered voters to demand a by-election in a vacant borough/district council seat (even a lowly parish council requires ten), the opportunist British National Party has been crowing for some time over its "success" in forcing Welwyn Hatfield Borough Council to hold an election for a vacancy in Welham Green ward - an election the Borough Council claimed would be costly and pointless, since the seat must be fought again in May.

The vacancy came about when one of two sitting Conservative councillors resigned after facing allegations of possessing child pornography, allegations repeated by many foot-soldiers of the BNP's online keyboard army as if they were court-tested fact. Given the allegations currently swirling around two leading members of the BNP, this is dangerous territory for them to venture into.

Welham Green is a village lying just to the south of Hatfield, Hertfordshire. Sometimes (to much local resentment) known as North Mymms, the place is prime commuter country, comfortably well-off and with house prices to match. Its main claim to fame seems to be an occasion in 1784, when Vincenzo Lunardi, undertaking the first ever balloon flight over England, touched down at Welham Green to let off his airsick cat.

Welham Green and Welwyn and Hatfield district generally being low on crime and scarcely touched by immigration, the make-it-up-as-you-go-along BNP urgently needed an issue and decided, against all the known evidence, that crime in the area was rising - a lie that did not especially please Hertfordshire Police, as we reported here.

This can hardly have done the BNP any favours, but then nor can a BNP-forced by-election fought over the Christmas and New Year holiday period have greatly pleased the council-tax payers of Welham Green, who cannot have welcomed the sight of BNP canvassers on their doorsteps in the midst of the festivities.

The first inkling that the previously disinterested BNP had an interest in calling a by-election for Welham Green came on this forum from the poster "clarebear", posing as somebody concerned with "democracy". The mask soon slipped as "clarebear" replied thus to a suspicious contributor: "I would have thought that anyone who subscribes to the activities and publications put out by the Far left extreamist organisation Searchlight (which you seem to be promoting in your avatar) would understand how the democratic process is so important in defeating the slide towards facism and that any attempt to deny the electorate their right to an election is just that" (authentic BNP spelling preserved).

Soon after the penny drops that "clarebear" is not only BNP, but is almost certainly the BNP's candidate, Mark Fuller - who, despite his alleged concern for "democracy" and the greater good of Welham Green gives an address in Welwyn Garden City.

Apart from this attention-seeking intervention, the BNP has little history in Welwyn and Hatfield, and did not contest any seats in the May local elections, when sixteen council places were fought.

Welwyn and Hatfield Borough Council is divided into 17 wards electing 48 councillors. The council has a virtually unassailable Conservative majority, the Tories currently having 34 seats (+ 1 vacancy), Labour 10 and the Liberal Democrats 3. In May 2007 the Conservatives gained two seats from Labour and ousted the sole Green representative, while the Liberal Democrats remained unchanged. In May 2008 all 48 seats will be up for election due to boundary alterations.

Welham Green was last fought in 2006, with this result (percentages in brackets):

Con 707 (66.64)
Lab 198 (18.66)
LibDem 156 (14.70)

As "clarebear"/Fuller intimates on the forum linked to above, the BNP clearly hopes to exploit the scandal surrounding Welham Green's resigned councillor, and is perhaps hoping that a Christmas/New Year election will see a dire turnout work to its advantage.

We think otherwise. We believe that in forcing this unecessary by-election the BNP has shot itself in the foot, but given that this is new BNP ground, and that Labour has little chance of denting the Tory majority, the racist party might expect to gain votes from both. In solidly Tory seats it is usually the Liberal Democrats who benefit from Conservative strife, and as the LibDems have mounted an especially active campaign, they have the most to gain in Welham Green.

We have been unable to glean any exact indication of the BNP's expectations, but their trolls doing the rounds of the forums seem to be pitching a good second place as the likely outcome, which suggests a 20%+ target as they must know they need better than Labour's 18.66% to come anywhere near to even a bad second place.

Welwyn and Hatfield BC Welham Green ward result:

Con 539 (40.68)
LibDem 484 (36.53)
BNP 214 (16.15)
Lab 88 (6.64)

Turnout 46.6

The Tories duly suffered for the allegations against their former councillor, and as we expected it was the Liberal Democrats who benefitted most - though the size of the swing in their favour comes as a surprise even to us (as does the size of the turnout on such a dismally cold day). The squeeze on Labour seems to have come mostly from the LibDems but partially from the BNP, which clearly drew off some disaffected Tory voters.

We know that the BNP went to great lengths to mobilise its vote in what it (and, admittedly, just about everybody else) predicted would be a low-turnout election, which suggests that 16% is towards the higher end of what the party can expect in Welham Green and places like it when the mainstream parties take the BNP threat seriously and motivate voters to block its progress. In this case the hard work was done by the Liberal Democrats, but the local Tories cannot be faulted for never disguising their distaste for the BNP.

This by-election did not go quite according to plan for the BNP. It loudly sought the credit for calling it, believed it could cash in by myth-making about crime, and thought it could make capital on the back of as yet unproven allegations against the former sitting councillor.

It was wrong.

That, however, should not blind us to the fact that had this by-election not been so hard-fought between the Tories and the LibDems, producing an extra 264 voters over the 2006 turnout, then the BNP would almost certainly have bettered 20%.

Vigilance remains the watchword.