Ibstock and Heather by-election: alarm bells still ringing in East Midlands

Badly in need of an electoral lift to rally the troops at a time of bitter internal division, the Griffinite BNP has descended en masse to the unassuming Leicestershire villages of Ibstock and Heather, where an otherwise unremarkable local by-election is being fought on Rebel BNP turf.

It's been a long time since the BNP poured resources on the scale it has into a by-election, and the clear intention is to take full advantage of the groundwork done by those now in the rebel camp to produce a stunning result for which the Griffin faction will take full credit.

Ibstock and Heather is a ward of North-west Leicestershire District Council, and squarely in a triangle of the East Midlands which - as we have been noting for some time - has been producing some of the best BNP election results in the country, in large part due to the organisational abilities of the expelled Sadie Graham.

Though we don't know what part the local rebel BNP has played in the election, it seems that the Griffinite BNP has taken it out of their hands, loyalists from as far afield as Newcastle being roped in to help. What candidate Ivan Hammonds makes of it all and where his sympathies lie is anybody's guess.

Ibstock is a large-ish former mining village, while Heather once enjoyed the close-by delights of an open-cast coal-mine. Both were also concerned with brick-making, of which industry the Ibstock Brick Company is a notable survivor.

The disappearance of the mines has seen steady demographic change in the district, North-west Leicestershire producing one of the most extraordinary results of the May 2007 local elections, when Labour were swept aside in a tidal wave of Conservative gains.

With 21 councillors and a majority of 4, Labour lost 16 seats, while the Conservatives, starting with 12, gained 15 for a majority of 16. While the Liberal Democrats remained unchanged on 3, others lost 1, with one remaining - and the BNP gained 2.

Thursday's by-election was called following the death of the sole sitting Labour councillor.

Ibstock and Heather is a multiple-member ward, voting as follows in May:

Con 737/731/599
Lab 707/620/559
UKIP 411
LibDem 225/222

The UKIP is not fighting this by-election, stoking BNP expectations of cleaning up their vote in a four-cornered Con/Lab/LibDem/BNP fight.

The BNP has for some time resisted the temptation to publicise its expectations, almost certainly because it so rarely meets them. Martin Wingfield is decidedly guarded, preferring to quote campaign manager Wayne McDermott's positive assessment and a Vote-2007 forum poster who predicted a 15-20% BNP vote. Wingfield is left to bemoan the fact that he has been refused membership of the Vote-2007 site, which might have something to do with the fact that the administrators of Vote-2007 have no intention of opening themselves up to the attentions of the BNP's keyboard army (and the fact that a little bird warned them...).

We would find it very difficult to believe that the BNP's minimum expecation can be anything less than 20%, and in all probability, given the resources they have expended, 25%. Nor would we, given the BNP's first-time performances in this area, be completely surprised if the BNP were to achieve the higher figure.

NW Leicestershire DC Ibstock and Heather ward result (percentages in brackets):

Con 515 (22.47)
Lab 699 (30.50)
L-D 441 (19.24)
BNP 637 (27.79)

Total 2292

Turnout 40.37%.

While the Labour vote (though down) has held up remarkably well, it is all too clear that the BNP has swallowed up the UKIP vote and persuaded a good proportion of Conservative voters into their camp.

We have to admit that this is a poor result for anti-fascism, especially as the Liberal Democrats (who did increase their vote) delivered anti-BNP literature to most households.

The questions now begin: what will this result pressage for the BNP's internal divisions? Nothing is more certain than that the Griffin camp will shout it to the heavens and gleefully highlight the lack of direct involvement by Sadie Graham and her supporters (even if that isn't quite true). And perhaps the Graham camp will hit back by highlighting the Griffinite BNP's hijacking of the campaign. To most BNP members, though, the result will be seen as a near-miss on new ground, and thus a success.

For us, a very loud alarm bell continues to ring in the East Midlands, but - the BNP did not win, and I am now reliably informed by a local correspondant that in the later stages of the campaign they became increasingly confident that they would (though they were careful not to say as much). And they must improve upon or at least defend their vote when Ibstock and Heather is next fought to give substance to their repeated claims of electoral progress, something the BNP has so far signally failed to do.