Showing posts with label John Oddy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Oddy. Show all posts

January 19, 2009

One Flew Over The Pig Farm: the BNP and us in 2008 - May

16 Comment (s)
If the plans we have in place to prevent electoral fraud via the spoiling of ballot boxes works then I expect three BNP officials to be elected in London. If their is fraud then only Richard will get elected.

Around the country I expect 40 new councillors to be elected and us to come second in about 120 other places.
So wrote political genius and legal mastermind Lee John Barnes as polling for the local and GLA elections began on May 1st.

Mocked by many as the BNP's most suitable case for treatment, Barnes's remarks were derided for being hopelessly optimistic and quite in keeping with his usual predictive extravagance, but what shouldn't be forgotten is that - demented though he may be - Barnes is close to the core of the BNP leadership, and would have had a good idea of the party's private expectations.

Keeping their expectations secret was part of the BNP's game in the run up to the elections, but we have a fair idea that Barnes (himself possessing all the political acumen of a brick) was merely passing on what the leadership believed it could achieve in near perfect political and social circumstances for the racist party. The leadership wasn't alone: the BNP's keyboard army continually referred to 2008 as "the year of the BNP" and their hopes at times verged on the stratospheric.

Opinion amongst anti-fascists was divided as to how well (or badly) the BNP would do. As discontent with the Labour government reached new heights, as migration scares broke almost daily in the press, and as the BBC's infamous "White" season climaxed, it did seem to some that May 2008 really could see the BNP make its long-predicted breakthrough. At Lancaster Unity we exercised restraint, keeping in mind the BNP's failure of the previous year (also prematurely hailed as "the year of the BNP"), and having reported on a mostly uninspiring series of BNP local by-election results during the course of 2007 and early 2008. It wasn't that we didn't harbour concerns, but our experience told us not to expect a political earthquake on May 1st.

Following the dud that was the BNP's 2007 local election performance, and coming as another bout of internal feuding rumbled on, Nick Griffin and his inner circle were deeply concerned that another bad BNP performance would see the end of his leadership as the more astute among the membership tired of Griffin's endless "jam tomorrow" promises. Their plan to circumvent dissention and bolster morale was tried, tested, simple - and guaranteed to work on a party membership remarkable for its gullibility and lack of political perception: everything, no matter how trivial, would be claimed as a BNP victory, even if the polar opposite were true.

To that end members were encouraged to stand in the most paltry of parish and town council elections, and especially to stand in obscure parishes where the BNP's candidate could expect to be returned unopposed. This gave the party the opportunity to brag that it had so many councillors "elected" here or there even before a ballot had been cast on May 1st. That these parish councillors had little or no power was never highlighted, and the party was always careful to omit the all-important word "parish" before that of "councillor".

It was simple trickery, mostly designed to fool the BNP membership, and it worked handsomely.

On election day we experimented with "live" blogging, and the Lancaster Unity community rallied round to support us in what proved to be a long and interesting night.

May 1st 2008 represented the culmination of the BNP's biggest push to date, but as the results began to come in it was obvious that all their effort and bluster was bringing in but scant reward. Searchlight later reported:
On election day the BNP predicted it would win 40 new councillors and three seats on the London Assembly. However, when the first results came in, it quickly became clear that this was too optimistic. As the night continued the size of the BNP failure became apparent.

The BNP won three seats in Stoke-on-Trent and two each in Amber Valley, Rotherham and Nuneaton & Bedworth. It also took one seat in Thurrock, Three Rivers, Pendle and Calderdale. It also successfully defended seats in Epping and Burnley. This takes the number of BNP councillors to 55, up from 45 before these elections.

However, it also lost two seats it was defending in Epping and one in Kirklees.

In most areas the BNP share of the vote was well down on last year, which in itself was down on the previous election, particularly in its traditional heartlands.
An increase of ten councillors and a falling vote was hardly a glittering success and certainly not what a nervy Nick Griffin wanted to hear. Barnes quickly backtracked on his "40 new BNP councillors" statement, claiming that he had in fact meant 40 new parish and district councillors, and that was enough to satisfy the majority of BNP troops, who convinced themselves that they had somehow made an historic advance, with one of their better known but more moronic bloggers postulating that in future May 1st might be renamed "BNP Day".

Knowing that the more savvy and rebellious of his members would see straight through the hype, a threatened Griffin desperately hoped to pull a Barnbrook out of the hat in the GLA elections, which were counted on May 2nd.

The BNP could only win seats on the GLA (which, for their purposes, they elevated to something close to the fount of all power) through the party top-up system, and initially believed they were on course to take three GLA seats through these back-door means. As it became increasingly obvious that the party would be lucky to break the 5% barrier necessary to give them a single seat, so the expansive predictions were reined in and an anxious day began for Nick Griffin.

Lancaster Unity again "live blogged" the results with the help of our own loyal community (and as large an audience of BNP lurkers). For much of the night it seemed that the BNP's Richard Barnbrook would not pass the 5% threshold, and while we waited the BNP contented itself with euphoric celebrations on the news that Conservative Boris Johnson had ousted Labour's Ken Livingstone in the mayoral race. Lee Barnes commented incisively:
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

I AM LAUGHING AT YOU

AND I AM GOING TO BE LAUGHING ALL NIGHT YOU PRICK

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

RED KEN GONE

BNP IN THE GLA

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
Barnes was more than premature in believing that the BNP had secured a GLA seat, since it was by no means certain at that hour that they had. Richard Barnbrook's appalling performance in the mayoral contest, where he had picked up a derisory 2.9% (not something Barnes dwelled on), suggested caution.

At one in the morning, however, it became clear that Barnbrook had crept into the London Assembly on 5.4%, and the online element of the BNP erupted with jubilation at their victory, egged on by Griffinites determined to gloss over the uncomfortable fact that in the most ideal circumstances possible the party had stalled in the local election polls and failed by a long way to achieve its GLA targets.

Naturally we weren't delighted with Barnbrook's election, but it wasn't the end of the world, given the pre-poll fears of many that London's PR system might provide the BNP with the electoral breakthrough it craved. We were also happy that the BNP's man on the Assembly was Barnbrook, who immediately demonstrated why in an incoherent slurry-shouty (not to say lonely) speech that set the tone for his GLA tenure.


Barnbrook's election was almost certainly the single most important factor in saving Nick Griffin's leadership bacon. The man had, after all, yet again presided over what were a generally uninspiring set of election results, the only real high point being Barnbrook's GLA seat. In consequence, the hyping of Barnbrook continued apace, but just in case any awkward BNP members of rebellious bent should point out that 5.4% wasn't really very good at all, the party came up with a tale of “massive and organised ballot box tampering”, claiming 400,000 votes went west, a lie quickly nailed by Searchlight.

It was at this moment that the most unlikely (and ill-timed) challenge to Nick Griffin's leadership was announced by disaffected Kirklees BNP councillor Colin Auty. Soon after that, an email of disputed provenance was passed on to Lancaster Unity. Allegedly from the irrepressible Lee Barnes in his capacity as Director of the BNP's Legal Department, the missive certainly hit all the usual Barnsian notes:
I have been instructed to inform you of a bogus and illegal leadership challenge and the disciplinary measures we are now putting in place to squash this diversionary and divisive activity in the bud. This is a deceitful and cynical attempt to divert the party’s attention away from the historical victory last week in London and to derail the activist’s attention away from the all important European Elections next June.

This is a sham nothing and more than a forged challenge devised by the liars, thieves and splitters who tried to wreck the party in December 2007 before their unsuccessful coup was successfully thwarted by quick action from the Party’s own security, legal and intelligence departments. The challenger claims is to be Councilor Colin Autty from Kirkless in Yorkshire, a decent man who is known to many of you but he is being used as a puupet by the gang of malcontents who stole party emails, stole party property, stole thousand of pounds of party monies, spread malicious rumours about the Chairman, myself and other senior party officers on bogus Blogs and through a series of bogus bulletins which they prepared using stolen membership lists which they then passed on to our enemies in MI5, The Special Branch, The Labour Party and the Searchlight organisation. They then tried unsuccessfully to set up a rival political party. It is a cylical attempt by our enemies to try and derail the Party and to stop activities to get BNP members electd to the European Parliament.
The dust had hardly settled after the local elections when three of the BNP's newly elected (unopposed) town councillors in Colwyn Bay resigned from the party for reasons not entirely clear, but protestations on the part of one of them, John Oddy, that "I have never been a racist" indicated a belated opening of eyes to what the BNP is really all about. That, however, proved not to be the case. Oddy had just been fined £100 for using a mobile telephone while driving his car, but later still he told the North Wales Daily Post:
“I feel as I have become more high profile I have clashed with the hierarchy in the party and this has now come to a head and led to my resignation. I am at odds with the opinions of the Welsh branch of the BNP, although I have no quarrel with the party nationally.”
Paul Harley, who resigned with Oddy, said: "I have found out more about the party and I am not happy with what I have found out."

Better late than never, but was that the whole truth? Antifascist wasn't convinced:
All three remain members of the local golf club, a place where the Colwyn Bay glitterati meet, confer and make deals which, in the words of one of our correspondents, is full of BNP sympathisers, covert supporters and party members, and none of the three protagonists have showed any sign of feeling the need to disassociate from the club - which leads one to believe that this evolution from BNP to Independent is nothing but a cosmetic change, designed simply to allay the fears of the locals that the Colwyn Bay trio may be too close to the BNP and thus they might get grubby by association.
The BNP met with a humiliating rebuff in Stoke-on-Trent, where Lord Kamlesh Patel was to discuss violent extremism with local community leaders. Refusing to speak to Alby Walker, BNP group leader on Stoke City Council, Lord Patel said:
"I make no apology for refusing to meet with the BNP during my visit to Stoke. My work is focused on looking at what positive actions local communities can take to prevent extremism. I do not believe that any party with extremist views has anything constructive to contribute to this agenda."
With a leadership challenge pending, Griffinite spin on the BNP's election performance reached new heights (or depths, as you will), with the party's website grandstanding the headline: "Tories, Plaid Cymru and Lib Dems trounced in Swansea". The problem was that the BNP had also been trounced, not winning a single seat. A spokesman for the Welsh Tories told the Swansea Evening Post: "These absurd claims fly in the face of the facts. The BNP's divisive, extremist views were rejected by voters in Swansea and every other part of Wales."

At Stafford Crown Court the trial of Stoke-on-Trent man Habib Khan opened. Khan was charged with the murder of Keith Brown, a BNP activist who had subjected the Khan family to "years of racial taunts, threats and violence", as The Times reported:
Mr Brown and his family, none of whom worked, were said to have been jealous of their industrious Pakistani neighbours and to have inflicted a spiral of abuse on them. Habib Khan is accused of stabbing Mr Brown to death with an eight-inch kitchen knife.
Keith Brown's tragic death the previous June was the culmination of a series of violent incidents between the neighbouring Brown and Khan families, one the BNP spun for all it was worth. Nick Griffin, who appears never to have met Keith Brown, cynically turned up at his funeral, which became little more than a BNP propaganda exercise as its leader gave a tearful interview to the risible "BNPtv News". The party shamelessly ignored sub-judice as it "reported" its version of events, which cast Brown in the light of a martyr to Muslim violence.


This was very far from the truth, as Stafford Crown Court heard. Habib Khan, described as a "mild and calm-mannered family man", had taken a knife to threaten Brown, who had hold of one of his sons. The trial judge said that Khan had acted "in the honest belief that he needed to protect his son" but in doing so had killed Mr Brown.

Khan was cleared of murder but found guilty of manslaughter and wounding, and later received an eight-year prison sentence.

Nick Griffin and Colin Auty
Meanwhile, alleged BNP elections "guru" and erstwhile Griffinite Eddy Butler waded into Colin Auty's leadership challenge in a strange, hectoring email that spoke in one moment of "our Parties [sic] openness and commitment to democracy" then talked of "anyone who has the temerity to wish to stand for leadership". The "temerity to wish"?

Butler gave out strong hints that the BNP's rules might need to be changed to preserve Nick Griffin's position: "There will be pressure, perhaps unstoppable pressure, to change the rules so that leadership challenges can only take place every four years." No prizes for guessing where the "unstoppable pressure" would originate.

As it later turned out, the Griffin-inspired notion of allowing challenges only every four years was a con being worked on the BNP membership, who would be got - through a bogus compromise - to give Griffin what he really wanted.

Butler, possessed of a very Stalinist idea of "democracy", called on members not to sign Colin Auty's nomination forms, referred to the councillor as a "joke candidate" and recommended that the leadership election "should be carried out in the most rapid manner possible with zero publicity allowed" to Auty.

Paranoic Griffinite attrition on Auty was relentless. The BNP's own secret forum banned any pro-Auty discussion, while its dirty tricks department marched around the internet spreading black propaganda. BNP branches were instructed not to invite Auty to speak at their meetings, and branches which had booked troubadour Auty to sing cancelled.

Auty's campaign manager, Roger Robertson, the BNP's former South-East Regional Organiser, was told that he faced disciplinary proceedings, much as Mike Easter (Chris Jackson's manager the previous year) found himself subject to a Griffinite fit-up.

The intention was clearly to dissuade BNP members from signing Auty's nomination papers, the implied threat being that they, too, would face expulsion. It was a telling measure of the febricity infecting the top of the BNP that this vicious overkill was deployed to protect Nick Griffin from a challenge everybody knew he would walk.

In the meantime Richard Barnbrook made an utter fool of himself when he threatened to stampede into London mayor Boris Johnson's office with "100 young people". The brown-suited one had been to Sidcup, hoping to exploit the murder of Robert Knox. In a since deleted blog post he wrote:
I have invited all of the young people there to come down to City Hall this Tuesday for 9:30 in the morning. This knife crime has to be stopped. If I have to bring a 100 young people into Boris's office then that is what I will do.
Barnbrook and his aides stood waiting outside City Hall at the appointed time, ready to greet the throngs of incensed young militants rallying to his call. He waited, and waited, and waited, vainly scanning the horizon for signs of massed greasy hair and acne on the march, but saw only the familiar face of self-inflicted humiliation grinning directly back at him.

To be continued...

December 11, 2008

Former BNP councillor brands Griffin greedy, BNP policies as 'foolish and dangerous'

6 Comment (s)
You may remember the curious story of John Oddy, member of Bay of Colwyn Town Council (the equivalent of a parish council) and the former North Wales Organiser for the British National Party.

It was he who, back in May of this year, caused some embarrassment to the BNP when he and his two newly-elected colleagues Paul and Sue Harley, resigned at their very first council meeting less than a week after being co-opted (not elected) to their local council.

Nobody was quite sure why the Harleys had resigned but Oddy seemed to have stood down to avoid being kicked out, as we discovered the day after his resignation when this appeared in his local paper:
'A BNP town councillor was yesterday fined for using his mobile phone while at the wheel of his car.

Last October a police officer spotted John Oddy, 51, driving along the promenade at Colwyn Bay while using his phone, a court heard. Oddy, of West Promenade, Colwyn Bay, did not appear for the hearing before Llandudno magistrates but was found guilty and fined £100 with three penalty points and must pay £75 costs.

Oddy – driving a Jaguar – was “speaking about a media matter to a friend or colleague,” the court heard.'
Jaguars and BNP members are never a good combination - look at Clive Jefferson.

Now Oddy has joined the growing band of former BNP councillors who have chosen to speak out against the leader Nick Griffin. Sadie Graham, you may recall, described Griffin as a 'liar and coward', while Colin Auty referred to him as a ruthless 'crook and liar'. Former BNP town councillor in Oddy's neck of the woods, Pat Pattison, described the BNP as intolerably racist.

Oddy, writing on his blog, has a fair amount to say about the BNP, its not so glorious leader and its policies.
  • The party has policies that are not only unworkable but foolish and dangerous.
  • Do not forget the roots of the BNP lay in the National Front and so there are causes for concern there
  • The present leadership of the party have cut their teeth on scandal and controversy, Nick Griffin, being a prime example.
  • Nick Griffin...can no longer lead the party effectively
  • [Griffin] carries too much baggage
  • [He] has become too greedy
  • [He] has scant regard for the real members.
  • If the party wishes to loose the “Racist” stigma then they must also loose Nick and a few of his cronies...
  • I would like to see a change of Party Leadership...'
Sadly, despite all this, Oddy announces that 'given the opportunity, yes I would vote for them'. Given his comments, we have to ask. Why?

May 18, 2008

The peculiar case of the three lost councillors

2 Comment (s)
Just ten days ago, we reported on the fact that the BNP had lost three of its new and much-overhyped intake of town councillors following the joint resignations of all three who had been co-opted (not elected) on to Colwyn Bay Town Council.

Paul Harley, Sue Harley and John Oddy formally resigned as BNP councillors on May 7th, less than a week after they took office, at their very first council meeting, where all three were represented by Oddy who stated in a post on the icWales forum;

'I attended the meeting to inform the Council that yesterday afternoon all three Councillors had resigned from the BNP and that we were prepared to remain on the Council as Independents, if the Council required it all three of us were prepared to also resign from the Council and allow our seats to be put forward to a by-election that we would not contest.'

When asked why they'd left the BNP, he responded thus;

'My reason for leaving the BNP was my own personal choice, the other two Councillors choose to leave with me. I have always been regarded as a moderate within the party and, as I’ve always maintained, I have never been a racist...'

The reason for Oddy, who was (or possibly still is) the BNP's North Wales organiser, breaking his link with the BNP was made clear on the day after our report when it emerged that he had been fined for using his mobile phone while driving. This didn't, however, explain why the Harveys resigned along with him.

A week later, Oddy and the Harveys were interviewed by the Daily Post, and revealed the apparent truth about the resignations, which seemed to be based on the belated discovery that the BNP is a racist organisation.

Haulage worker Mr Harley, 62, from Penrhyn Bay, who was elected to the Dinerth ward, said:

'When I joined the party I did believe that the party had changed from its former image. I felt the same after attending meetings where racist views were not expressed but in the past few weeks I have found out more about the party and I am not happy with what I have found out. I have always maintained that I was not racist, but individuals that hold racist views remain. My mind was made up before the attack on the house, myself and my wife did not want to be portrayed as racist, which we are not. We only wanted to represent the community.'

The alleged 'attack' referred to is that the words 'BNP Racist Scum' were scrawled across the Harvey's garage and paint stripper was poured on their car.

Harley clearly stated in last week's North Wales Weekly News that the attack wasn't the reason for their exit from the BNP, and claimed to be leaving because of personal reasons. 'We'd already decided on the morning before the attack to leave. I don't feel it's our party,' he said.

John Oddy claimed the three of them had opted out of the BNP because of a disagreement with the party's management. 'I still support the BNP and their policies but when the shit hits the fan they're nowhere to be seen. I've got no faith in their middle management...I feel as I have become more high profile I have clashed with the hierarchy in the party and this has now come to a head and led to my resignation. I am at odds with the opinions of the Welsh branch of the BNP, although I have no quarrel with the party nationally.'

Simon Darby, the BNP's deputy-leader, ignored the accusations of racism (as he always does) and lack of support from the party managers, claiming that the resignations were solely due to the attack on the Harvey's home.

As we all know, the BNP is never in the wrong whether it is supporting violent racists who attack asylum-seekers, shredding dodgy financial records or covering up attempts to have sex with underage girls at its conference, but there certainly appears to be some hasty backing and filling going on in North Wales. According to both of the Harleys and Oddy, the party is racist (like we didn't know it), and according to Oddy, there are disagreements with the party management and a lack of support.

There are peculiarities about these resignations though, that appear to make no real sense. Though it's now nearly three weeks since the elections and Oddy announced at the first town council meeting of the new session that the three were standing down as BNP councillors and would switch to being Independents, they have yet to inform the council officially and are still listed as BNP. Colwyn Bay Town Council clerk John Roberts said until he has been informed formally of the councillors' resignations, they will remain BNP members of the council.

All three remain members of the local golf club, a place where the Colwyn Bay glitterati meet, confer and make deals which, in the words of one of our correspondents, is full of BNP sympathisers, covert supporters and party members, and none of the three protagonists have showed any sign of feeling the need to disassociate from the club - which leads one to believe that this evolution from BNP to Independent is nothing but a cosmetic change, designed simply to allay the fears of the locals that the Colwyn Bay trio may be too close to the BNP and thus they might get grubby by association.

I'll confess that all this sounded a little conspiracy-theory-related to me until someone pointed out that Oddy was as racist a BNP member as they come. Readers might recall that he recently verbally attacked former Llysfaen councillor Pat Pattison for having the temerity to help an Asian family as part of his own duties as a town councillor, stating that the party wasn't happy with him because he'd been 'helping fucking Pakis' and that 'they're Muslim scum anyway'. Pattison left the party properly immediately after discovering its racism.

What a pity the Harveys seem unable to properly follow his example.

May 15, 2008

BNP three quit party after local elections

5 Comment (s)
British National Party members elected to a town council have resigned from the party. BNP North Wales organiser John Oddy and party members Paul Harley and Susan Harley were elected unopposed to Bay of Colwyn Town Council this month. Yesterday it emerged the three tendered their resignations to the party after the election.

This follows a clash between Mr Oddy and higher ranking members, and a graffiti attack at the home of husband and wife Paul and Susan Harley where “BNP racist scum” was daubed on their garage.

Mr Oddy said: “I feel as I have become more high profile I have clashed with the hierarchy in the party and this has now come to a head and led to my resignation. I am at odds with the opinions of the Welsh branch of the BNP, although I have no quarrel with the party nationally.”

Haulage worker Mr Harley, 62, from Penrhyn Bay, who was elected to the Dinerth ward, said: “When I joined the party I did believe that the party had changed from its former image. I felt the same after attending meetings where racist views were not expressed but in the past few weeks I have found out more about the party and I am not happy with what I have found out. I have always maintained that I was not racist, but individuals that hold racist views remain. My mind was made up before the attack on the house, myself and my wife did not want to be portrayed as racist, which we are not. We only wanted to represent the community.”

The trio offered to stand down from their seats on Colwyn Bay council but their offer was turned down and they will now stand as independents.

BNP spokesman Simon Darby said he believed being a BNP member came with “certain pressures” and the attack on the Harleys’ home had contributed to their resignations.

Daily Post

May 09, 2008

BNP councillor fined for using his mobile

5 Comment (s)
[Now we know why John Oddy resigned so suddenly as BNP town councillor on Colwyn Bay Town Council (as reported here). The only mystery remaining is why his two colleagues resigned at the same time.]

A BNP town councillor was yesterday fined for using his mobile phone while at the wheel of his car.

Last October a police officer spotted John Oddy, 51, driving along the promenade at Colwyn Bay while using his phone, a court heard. Oddy, of West Promenade, Colwyn Bay, did not appear for the hearing before Llandudno magistrates but was found guilty and fined £100 with three penalty points and must pay £75 costs.

Oddy – driving a Jaguar – was “speaking about a media matter to a friend or colleague,” the court heard.

Oddy has just become a member of Colwyn Bay Town Council, elected unopposed as there were not enough candidates in his ward for an election. But in a Conwy County Borough Council election he came bottom of the poll with 10 candidates for four seats.

Daily Post

May 08, 2008

BNP loses three after less than a week

28 Comment (s)
Following last week's elections the BNP bragged as loudly as it could at the fact that it had 'won' a further six new councillors in North Wales, putting the total up to nine (all of whom are, incidentally, town councillors, the equivalent of parish, and all of whom walked into office completely unopposed).

According to Bill Murray, the BNP's Welsh Regional Secretary:

'After the hard work of all our activists we will be taking a week break then it will be back to business as usual.'

Indeed it is because three of the new intake have resigned from the BNP.

Colwyn Bay town councillors Paul Harley, Sue Harley and John Oddy formally resigned as BNP councillors yesterday at their very first council meeting, where all three were represented by Oddy who stated in a post on the icWales forum;

'I attended the meeting to inform the Council that yesterday afternoon all three Councillors had resigned from the BNP and that we were prepared to remain on the Council as Independents, if the Council required it all three of us were prepared to also resign from the Council and allow our seats to be put forward to a by-election that we would not contest.'

When asked why they'd left the BNP, he responded thus;

'My reason for leaving the BNP was my own personal choice, the other two Councillors choose to leave with me. I have always been regarded as a moderate within the party and, as I’ve always maintained, I have never been a racist...'

Quite apart from the question of why the Harleys left when Oddy had resigned for 'personal' reasons, there is a question mark over the latter's statement that he has never been a racist. According to Pat Pattison, who resigned from the party after discovering its 'intolerable' racism, Oddy verbally attacked him for having the temerity to help an Asian family as part of his own duties as a town councillor, stating that the party wasn't happy with him because he'd been 'helping fucking Pakis' and that 'they're Muslim scum anyway'. Oddy might not think those remarks are racist but they definitely look like they are from where I'm sitting.

Just a few days ago, I wrote;

'Given the usual disasters the BNP is prone to, we should lose half of the new input of BNP councillors within a year or so.'

At this rate, they won't last the month.