October 28, 2009

Griffin TV appearance fails to lift BNP support in latest polls

The public is more balanced about the British National Party than Peter Hain and other alarmists. Nick Griffin’s appearance on Question Time last Thursday has had no effect on the BNP’s rating. There is a big difference between public anxieties that the BNP seeks to exploit and voters’ willingness to back the party.

Two polls since Question Time show no evidence of any BNP bounce. Its support remains in the recent 2 to 3 per cent range: and between 1.5 and 3 per cent over the past year according to Populus. (These ratings are below those recorded by the Greens and the UK Independence Party.) Small fluctuations at this low level do not mean anything because of the margin of error. Moreover, the number having a positive impression of the BNP has fallen from 11 to 9 per cent since June.

Anthony Wells, of UK Polling Report website, concludes: “Despite all the hoo-ha and protests, despite the millions of people who watched Question Time, it doesn’t seem to have made any significant difference to how the public view them, or how likely they are to support them (at least, not yet).”

Not yet is an important caveat. The alarmists have focused on last Saturday’s YouGov poll in the Telegraph identifying 15 per cent who say it was possible that they would vote BNP in a future local, general or European election, and the 7 per cent who say they would “definitely or probably” consider doing so. But the same poll showed BNP support still at just 3 per cent.

An analysis on the Political Betting website of a mass of polling data shows that two thirds of BNP supporters did not vote for any of the big three parties in 2005, and most did not vote at all. Only a fifth are former Labour voters. Overall, they are more likely to be working class than other parties’ voters. The BNP’s real success is in mobilising previous non-voters.

This is not, however, an argument for complacency. There are high levels of support for issues championed by the BNP. An ICM poll for the News of the World had two thirds believing that recent immigrants get more favourable housing and state benefits compared with “Brits”. Three fifths say mainstream parties have “no credible policies” on immigration but only 44 per cent agree that the white working classes have been abandoned by the mainstream parties, with 52 per cent disagreeing.

The BNP matters because it articulates and distorts the fears of the disaffected about being squeezed out of public services. The party will probably win votes in a few areas but it is not a serious electoral threat nationally.

Times Online

9 comments:

irishtony said...

Dick "Big boys made me do it" Griffin was a disaster on question time. The ammunition he has provided for any GE or any election for that matter is priceless.
How low can that odious man go? The trade off of his father with Jack Straws was as base as one can get.

Firstly Dick is not his father so selling his own fathers name to try and score some cheap points was an indication of how little intellect the ogre has.

KKK non violent?
Islam a wicked faith?
Inability to deny the Holocaust?
Two men kissing is creepy?

The BNP members will never wake up to this mans stupidity but the general public will.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time etc etc etc

Hate the BNP said...

But it got nearly 7 percent nationally in the Euro's, if you took out Scotland their percentage in England is way higher.I Don't get this.

Anonymous said...

Bearing in mind we don’t really know how many people will vote for them because most do not admit to it, and the fact that I’ve heard on the grape vine that they had to bring people in to answer their phones because they couldn’t cope. I have no reason to doubt this info either. Polls change all the time. And I think it really depends not on his performance on Question Time but what he makes of it. The creeps are giving him radio time already, and we know the more listeners they get, the more they like it. He gets more time to talk about policies instead of defending himself all the time.

Anonymous said...

I love the new logo but for new readers it might be a bit confusing because it doesn't say anything about the site being anti-fascist.

Jamie The Antifascist said...

Would be intresting to see if Gri££in has a rebellion on his hands right before the next general election after his "epic fail" on Question Time, the BBC made Gri££in look a fool and it's the done the BNP no favours at all.

lastrolo said...

The cost of BNP membership plus the regular Gri££in begging letters puts off many potential racist members signing up for this neo-Nazi organisation, which is why the EDl Casuals with their free or very cheap membership is much preferable for people to join.

Anonymous said...

Not at all surprised, he was shambolic and shifty and sinister.

Do we still want no platform? Hahahaha

Chris said...

@ "I hate the BNP"

Your probably a BNP troll but I'll humour you non the less.

The BNP got 6.2% nationally.
Even if you took out the results of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland the BNP percentage of votes in England alone still only comes out at 6.56%.

Total votes in England:

13,397,900

Total BNP votes in England:

879,310

Right, are you following me so far?

13,397,900 divided by 100 =

133,979

879,310 divided by 133,979 =

6.563043

So, BNP votes in England are not much higher percentage wise than total National votes because the vast majority of voters are in England anyway. Therefore, even subtracting the votes of the other nations in the UK, it makes little difference to overall percentage.

BNP troll FAIL!

iliacus said...

There is no inconsistency between a poll rating of 3% and a Euro result of 6.5% for the following reasons:

1. The poll is for voting intention in a general election;
2. The Euro turnout is far lower than a GE turnout, and there is some evidence of low turnouts (generally) favouring the BNP - and other minor parties;