Horsham: BNP's luck still out

True-blue Horsham in West Sussex is the setting for this week's by-election report. Set in the South Downs, affluent Horsham is prime commuter country, enjoying low crime levels, high educational standards, and - according to a 2006 Channel 4 programme "The ten best and worst places to live in the UK" - came second only to Winchester as the most desirable place in which to make a home.

Horsham District Council is unassailably Tory, the Conservatives holding 30 of the 44 seats, the Liberal Democrats 11, and Independents 2, with one vacancy in Holbrook ward arising due to the resignation of the sitting Conservative. Though there is an active Labour Party in the area, its vote share is abysmal. In Horsham, the Liberal Democrats form the only credible opposition to Tory dominance.

On the face of it, Horsham does not appear to be promising territory for the BNP, which contested Holbrook ward for the first time last night, but they do have a history of standing in the area.

A by-election last December in Denne ward saw them take a 12.68% share of the vote, which fell back to 10.5% when the seat was refought in May. Also standing in May was last night's Holbrook ward candidate Donna Bailey, who took 11.7% of the vote in Roffey North ward.

Holbrook ward being virgin turf for the BNP, again we are left with the problem of having nothing by which to measure their performance. The Labour vote is so small that there is almost nothing for the BNP to draw off, as May's result in the ward shows (percentages on right):

Con	1018	26.61
Con	959	25.07
LibDem	712	18.61
LibDem	698	18.24
Lab	78	2.04
Ind	361	9.44
Total	3826

The freed-up votes going to the Independent last time should have helped the BNP, as should a minor local controversy over the conversion of a disused church into a mosque. There was also the presentability of BNP candidate Donna Bailey herself, with her attractive looks and a message aimed directly at southern Conservative voters: "The primary cause [of council tax increases] is the Labour Government's re-allocation of central grants, from the South to the North to bribe its supporters." The racist core of the BNP's message was suitably muted: "Both the Tories and Lib Dems have assisted in the demographic changes being wrought in our ancestral homeland without any democratic consent or consultation. Since 2004, over 1.5million immigrants have arrived in the UK, placing unprecedented strains on our services and environment" - though there was a repeat of the BNP's pledge to deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers.

There were also pledges of zero-tolerance towards Travellers, on helping the police to combat crime, bin collections, and the linking of immigration with green issues.

Donna Bailey, then, fought a campaign little different from that of any right-wing Tory, as perhaps she was obliged to do given the political demographic of Horsham.

Local anti-fascists reported that the BNP were actively canvassing Holbrook ward to maximise their vote in an expected low-turnout election - low turnouts tend to exaggerate the true extent of the base BNP vote when combined with a half-way serious campaign.

Opposing the BNP's attempt at plausibility was Wealden UAF and Holbrook ward Labour candidate Ray Chapman, who organised a small anti-BNP rally in Horsham and delivered anti-fascist leaflets in Holbrook.

Horsham DC Holbrook ward result:

Con	554	40.35
LibDem	602	43.85
Lab	54	3.93
BNP	163	11.87
Total	1373

The Liberal Democrats gained the seat on a swing of about 9% from the Conservatives. That Labour predictably failed to make any impression (though increasing their vote share) and came in behind the BNP is the only crumb of comfort the racist party can take from this election. Their 11.87% share is almost exactly in line with their previous comparable local results, and in all probability represents the average of what the BNP can expect in this district.

Several months on from May's disappointments the BNP's inability to put on a good electoral showing or to evince the slightest signs of a significant breakthrough continues. Whatever happened to Fuhrer Nick's winning ways?