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It's been some time since I offered up one of my by-election roundups - perhaps the election of those two berks in June [you know who I mean!] brassed me off. But here's my return - prompted by interesting developments as the summer has progressed, and particularly the pattern which seems to be developing.
The fact is that over the past few weeks the BNP's participation rate has been falling, and their performance has not so much stalled as fallen backwards. And the events of September 10th underline that trend. There were eight byelections; the BNP fielded candidates in four. [Tories and Lib Dems fought all eight; Labour 6; BNP 4; Greens 3; UKIP 2; Others 6]
Two were being fought for the first time - in Market Harborough they polled 11.1% against Tory and Lib Dem (there was no Labour candidate, despite their having taken around 25% last time). In Westoe (South Tyneside) they polled around 12%, finishing 4th out of 6.
In York (Heworth) they polled 6.7%, about six points down on last time (2007). It's difficult to be precise, because the 2007 election was for all three councillors and there will have been varied vote splitting. Suffice to say that in an area where they gained 507 votes two years ago they managed just 172 this time.
The key contest, however, was in the Drayton ward of Daventry Borough Council. In 2008 the result here had been:
Conservative 654
BNP 451
Labour 257
With 33% of the vote last time, and with three new candidates to split the anti-BNP vote (Lib Dem, Independent and Socialist Alliance), and the prospect of a much reduced turnout they must have had hopes of taking the seat. Well, at least the reduced turnout happened! The result though will have been a huge disappointment to the BNP:
Conservative 314
Labour 158
Lib Dem 138
BNP 133
Independent 129
Socialist Alliance 55
They fell from second to fourth, and their share of the vote collapsed to 14.3%. Dismal, dismal, dismal.
Back in March I reviewed BNP performance at that period. In 'new' seats they were averaging 21%, and in seats previously contested they averaged 17.2% (up 0.8 percentage points on the preceding elections). On September 10th they averaged around 11.6% in 'new seats', and in previously contested seats 10.5% (down from 22.9% - fall of over 12 points).
No room for complacency; the threat remains. But if I were in the echelons of the BNP's election strategy I'd be getting very, very worried!
Good.
September 14, 2009
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14 comments:
Another excellent by-election report, Iliacus, thank you.
A very encouraging report. Nice one.
Always brightens's my day to see the latest by-election failure for the BNP:)
btw; Didn't they also come last in the Blackpool by-election results too?
It is quite bewildering why there seems to be little disquiet in the BNP at these elections results, Wingfield dismissed the daventry one saying that something would come along in the news in the near future to boost their results again. Its as though the BNP aren't that bothered with UK election results now they're in europe.
That may explain the leadership's response but not the members.
Perhaps they are more worried than they let on which would explain why many of them are flirting with the EDL as John P shows in a separate post on this blog.
The BNP should be very worried because these results come AFTER the euro elections which supposedly saw the BNP become "mainstream" and amidst much more coverage (some favourable) for the party with Nick Griffin and Andrew Bronze on a number of TV news programmes.
How the BNP polls after Dimbleby if they appear on it may be a telling time for the BNP and whether the membership start to get unsettled.
For now, to paraphrase a well known saying, 2 euro MPs do not a successful party make. They definately have not been a boon to BNP uk eletion results that is for sure.
Dropping from 2nd to 4th with a 50%reduction in vote with 2 euro MPs just elected is a total disaster. H
"No room for complacency; the threat remains. But if I were in the echelons of the BNP's election strategy I'd be getting very, very worried!"
Me too. It doesn't look as good as they keep telling everyone it is.
Didn't they also come last in the Blackpool by-election results too?
They did. LOL
I think you'll find the BNP percentage in Drayton was 31% not 33%, but still a bad day for them.
No matter once the ever helpful BBC shore them up with QT they'll be on the ascendency again!
I like Iliacus' matter-of-fact style. Nobody can argue with the figures, and the figures are looking dismal for the BNP.
As Iliacus says: GOOD.
"I like Iliacus' matter-of-fact style. Nobody can argue with the figures, and the figures are looking dismal for the BNP."
I agree with all of that. :)
"No matter once the ever helpful BBC shore them up with QT they'll be on the ascendency again!"
I think you overestimate the power of 'Question Time'.
"No matter once the ever helpful BBC shore them up with QT they'll be on the ascendency again!"
Not necessarily, Griffin and Brons on loads of TV progs lately due to winning Europe seats, the affect of higher BNP media visibility, and these are their high profile members (leader and college lecturer no less) has been to lower BNP votes not increase them.
Gri££in now has what he always wanted - a nice European cash-cow.
Over the next few years he'll stuff away money and assets into every hole he can (including Jackie) ready for his retirement. It’ll be the old ‘Its with a heavy heart…..etc, etc,’ addressed to the mug membership in four years time then off to Croatia! Happy days.
Gri££in in the mean time will keep local elections barely ticking along with as little investment into them as possible, because they no longer serve a purpose for him.
Local branches and groups that are already waning in their numbers will slowly suffocate as neglect from the top takes its toll. Big gestures, stunts and promises with second-hand trucks and other wastes of money will only act as an opiate for short while before the membership slowly realise that he has destroyed it, and its numbers start to really plummet.
Gri££in's utter contempt for the membership is palpable, and anyone that still pumps money into that odious mans treasure chest deserves all they get from him – which is actually nothing except more disappointment, bitterness and resentment.
Trust me, the BNP is finished.
Great article as usual. One interesting point that could be touched on a bit more is the fact there are quite a few by-elections that were not contested by the BNP in places you would think their support would be strongest.
Wednesbury South, where they came 2nd last year a fair way off the Tories winning total.
Ripley, Amber Valley, 20% of the vote there last year and two sitting councillors.
Cleveland South Bank, just under 16% of the vote last year.
Harrogate Starbeck, 10% at the last locals.
Where they are standing their vote is falling away and they are not standing candidates in what they consider their heartlands.
There is a by-election coming up in Barnsley St Helens that could prove to be tricky for us but there is very little else on the horizon for them.
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